Beltran Watch

Major League Baseball : News

So, the early afternoon reports of a menage a trois between the A's, Royals, and Astros appear to be untrue. For those too lazy to hit the links, the basic deal would have been as follows:
A's send Teahen (3B, AAA), possibly minor league pitcher to Astros
Astros send Octavio Dotel to A's, Teahen and AAA C prospect J. Buck to the Royals.
Royals send Beltran to the Astros.

The link above intimates that the deal never was close, but Ken Rosenthal says it was due to the Astros unwillingness to cover Dotel's salary. Leave it to Billy Beane to fleece a pair of trading partners, and then still demand financial relief.

I've tried looking at the deal from a bunch of angles, but I just can't find one where the deal makes sense to anybody but the A's. They give up a marginal 3B prospect who will most likely NEVER see time with their big league club, and a pitching prospect not named Joe Blanton. In return, they get one of the most dominant relievers over the last 3 years. The A's are 26th in the league with just 13 saves. I couldn't find the number of blown saves, but I think its 9. That 9 game difference would put them in first in the AL West by 8 games, and in the lead for the wild card by 6 games in the win column. I think its safe to say Dotel would be a guy who could certainly plug that hole.

Meanwhile, the Astros make a thin bullpen even thinner. While the Astro's Adjusted Runs Prevented is 23.2, good enough for third in the majors, almost half of that is all due to Brad Lidge. By installing Lidge as the closer, you lose his work in key high-leverage situations, and you end up moving someone like Dan Miceli (?!) into high leverage situations. If I'm Hunsicker, I don't dig that at all. Not to mention the fact that with Beltran's arrival, you end up moving Biggio to 2B and Kent to 3B - I don't buy into the intangibles school much, but common sense says veterans like Kent probably won't take kindly to switching positions for the new cool kid who just moved in to the neighborhood. Its a nice upgrade to an offense which is most likely due for an uptick anyways. To top it all off, its a 3 month rental - the Astros are historically a cheap team, and won't be players in the Beltran game this winter.

Finally, the Royals. I guess they get a decent set of prospects, but I'd expect more for a talent of Beltran's caliber. Buck was rushed through the minor leagues, and has issues with his defense and ability to make for contact, and Teahen is strictly a marginal talent, unless you drink Beane's moneyball kool-aid without thinking twice.

Whats my point? Whether he knows it or not, Hunsicker did the right thing by not pulling the trigger on this deal. My prediction of Beltran to the A's could still happen, but I'm now doubtful they'll be willing to pick up his salary, which even just 3 months of is nothing to scoff at ($4.5 million?).