Thursday, June 17, 2004

Rocky Mountain Low

My apologies for the title - it reminds me of something that the Herald would print on the back page in 48 point block print. But, I couldn't think of anything that better fit my feelings about the series with the Rockies thus far. This stat says it all: the Sox, as a team, have struck out 485 times in 64 games. At this pace, they'll strike out 1228 times. Note, last year they struck out 943 times. Yes math whizs, thats right, the Sox strike out almost 7.5 times per game. That implies that on any given night, if you looked at the box score, you would expect to see that the Sox faced one of these pitchers: Zito (7.7 K/9), Freddy Garcia (7.24 K/9), Johan Santana (8.39 K/9), Brad Penny (7.74 K/9), or Roy Oswalt (7.40 K/9). The list goes on and on. See it here.

The reality, of course, is that the Sox don't face those guys every game. In fact, they face substantially worse pitchers on average. Unfortunately, I haven't found a statistic on BP
that shows the average quality of pitcher each team has faced. I generally cringe at the sight of articles on ESPN.com espousing the profound impact of productive outs, but it appears to me that there must be some equilibrium between the "take and rake" approach and the "put it in play" approach which maximizes runs scored. Sox batters seem to be swinging for the fences regardless of the count, rather than protecting the plate when they fall behind the pitcher. Maybe its just heat of the moment frustration, but wouldn't the team be better served by putting the ball in play and letting the other team's defense make a play when runners are on base? I'm not advocating a BS small ball strategy, but rather, just an awareness of the count and a general strategy of making the opposition execute in the field rather than look for the long ball every at-bat.

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