Monday, January 31, 2005

Cubs and Orioles lineups

In support of Nick's post, here are the numbers:

2004 Roster
PosNamePAVORP
CMichael Barrett50631.0
1BDerrek Lee68843.3
2BTodd Walker42425.0
3BAramis Ramirez60659.6
SSRamon Martinez2981.5
RFSammy Sosa53927.9
CFCorey Patterson68727.9
LFMoises Alou67551.5
DHN/A00.0
----------
4423267.7

2005 Roster
PosNamePAVORP
CMichael Barrett35011.6
1BDerrek Lee57037.4
2BTodd Walker37817.7
3BAramis Ramirez56725.9
SSNomar Garciaparra50438.8
RFJerry Hairston32712.8
CFCorey Patterson55526.2
LFTodd Hollandsworth1979.3
LF2Jason Dubois23513.2
----------
TOTAL3683192.9

There's a considerable playing time difference, which I've partially offset by including a shared job at LF. Still, there are a lot of fragile players in there, and someone's going to have to pick up a lot of PA's. Looking at the roster, there's not a lot of hope there, which isn't too shocking when your starting corner outfielders are Hollandsworth and Hairston. Sorting by projected VORP, the next 3 guys are prospects that I've never heard of, Richard Lewis, Kevin Collins, and Brandon Sing, and the guy after that is Ben Grieve. Ouch. I think we'll all agree that committing 5 years to Magglio would be a ridiculous risk, but they need some help. If I were Jim Hendry I'd seriously consider putting together a ridiculously lucrative one year offer to Magglio and see if he wants to go the Nomar route and prove he's alright before testing the market again.

So how do the Orioles fare?
2004 Roster
PosNamePAVORP
CJavy Lopez63856.3
1BRafael Palmeiro65126.4
2BBrian Roberts73622.2
3BMelvin Mora63673.6
SSMiguel Tejada72573.0
RFJay Gibbons380-1.7
CFLuis Matos359-8.1
LFLarry Bigbie53114.8
DHDavid Newhan41224.5
----------
5068281.0

2005 Roster
PosNamePAVORP
CJavy Lopez49631.9
1BRafael Palmeiro50321.7
2BBrian Roberts58919.4
3BMelvin Mora52239.2
SSMiguel Tejada64750.6
RFSammy Sosa44025.3
CFLuis Matos42713.2
LFLarry Bigbie47212.8
DHDavid Newhan46014.4
----------
TOTAL4556228.5

The trade helps, but does it help enough? PECOTA doesn't seem to think so. For a pretty stable roster, there's a lot of decline going on. I suppose that's to be expected when last year's crop of free agent signings all had great year's and are past the traditional peak and/or require medication to get erections. On the bright side, Luis Matos was horrendous last year, so they can hope for some improvement with him.

1 Comments:

At February 1, 2005 at 1:59 PM, Blogger Colin said...

Just a clarification: I know that it's the Tigers and not the Cubs who are reportedly offering a 5 year deal to Magglio Ordonez. However, my point is that the Cubs should be in the market for a corner outfielder and he's the best thing out there right now, even considering that he's a substantial injury risk. That's why a one year deal is a sound idea, even if it costs a lot. The Cubs can afford it. If there's no commitment beyond this year, it's a worthwhile risk.

 

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