Kick back, relax, take a pull off of Shotzie.

Alright, why not. I figured I'd try to tackle one of these team breakdown things that Colin has been doing. If can somehow manage to get it to work, maybe we can end up covering every team. Wouldn't that be a treat to the 3 people out there who read this thing? (4 if Justin got my email.) This is my first attempt at this stuff, so if the numbers are off, I apologize.

The Cincinnati Reds were an interesting team last year. Going into the season they seemed poised to compete in the NL Central. They ended up getting a career year out of Sean Casey, Adam Dunn showed his potential, and Ken Jr. managed to stay healthy for 83 games (the most since 2001) before tearing his griffeystrings again. Yet, they still finished in 4th place behind three tough teams in St. Louis, Houston, and Chicago. They did get hit by injuries pretty hard last year, but another factor to this disappointing finish can probably be attributed to the fact that I had to look who they had pitching for them not named Danny Graves.

2004 Roster
Pos	Name	PA	VORP
C	Jason LaRue	445	21.1
1B	Sean Casey	633	66.2
2B	D'Angelo Jimenez	652	35.3
3B	Juan Castro	316	0.8
SS	Barry Larkin	386	26.5
RF	Austin Kearns	246	6.2
CF	Ken Griffey Jr.	348	26.4
LF	Adam Dunn	681	64.8
OF	Wily Mo Pena	364	23.5
		-----	-----
		4435	294.3

2005 Roster
Pos	Name	PA	VORP
C	Jason LaRue	321	11.9
1B	Sean Casey	556	23.5
2B	D'Angelo Jimenez	550	23.6
3B	Joe Randa	414	4.0
SS	Felipe Lopez	315	13.0
RF	Austin Kearns	378	29.8
CF	Ken Griffey Jr.	310	21.6
LF	Adam Dunn	550	42.4
OF	Wily Mo Pena	370	29.3
		-----	-----
	TOTAL	4134	228.4

Unless you're still playing "Ken Griffey Jr.'s Slugfest", I included Wily Mo Pena for obvious reasons. Given recent history, he's more than likely going to get a good amount of playing time. Regardless, the Reds still project to have an enviable outfield next year. Although I'm curious to see if Adam Dunn's name gets bandied about in mid-season trade talks if the Reds falter again this year (*cough* redsox *cough*). I can't believe I just used the word bandied.

Thirdbase was obviously a hole last season. There was talk of moving Kearns to third, but it looks like that was scratched because of his injuries. You could do worse with Joe Randa, but then again you could also do a whole lot better. I got to give Joe props though for having such stick-to-it-ness. A group of us once went to Fenway with homemade "R-A-N-D-A" shirts on. They also said "F-R-A-N-K" for Frank Castillo on the back too, so now you know what you're dealing with.

One of the more interesting stories of this season will be who takes over for Larkin, and how well they do. I threw Lopez in there because he seems to be the frontrunner, but regardless shortstop will more than likely be filled by a very green player. How they handle taking over for a superstar should play a part in how the Reds do. Sean Casey's projections are down for obvious reasons, but I tend to think that last year was more breakout year than career year. I'd expect him to end the season with a much higher value.

2004 Rotation
Name	GS	IP	VORP
Paul Wilson	29	183.7	24.6
Aaron Harang	28	161.0	13.1
Jose Acevedo	27	157.7	-7.1
Cory Lidle	24	149.0	0.4
Brandon Claussen	14	66.0	-7.7
Todd Van Poppel	11	115.3	-6.5
	-----	-----	-----
TOTAL	133	832.7	16.8

2005 Rotation
Name	GS	IP	VORP
Paul Wilson	24	139.0	5.4
Eric Milton	27	164.0	10.9
Jose Acevedo	16	104.0	5.0
Brandon Claussen	17	101.0	4.7
Josh Hancock	14	86.0	3.9
Luke Hudson	15	94.0	11.0
	-----	-----	-----
TOTAL	113	688.0	40.9

How bad was Jose Acevedo last year? Remember in 2003 when Danny Graves started and the words "unmitigated disaster" were thrown around? Yeah, that's a good comparison. This offseason they let mediocrity's sweetheart Cory Lidle go, resigned number 1 starter by default Paul Wilson, and added Eric Milton to the mix. So yeah, the rotation really isn't that much better. If Claussen gets it going this year, they will probably have two or three young pitchers vying for the 5th spot. Regardless, the rotation should be at least marginally better than last year just due to their young pitcher's progression. Having Todd Van Poppel sit at home wondering why he sucks so bad should help too.

Just like last year, the Reds successes will probably be in the hands of their starters. If they can get some of their promising young guys to click, they could make some noise in the Central, especially with the drop off of competition after the Cardinals. Sounds a bit like 2004 doesn't it?