The House that Francesca Built

"Juiced" and a pathetic admission.

2005-02-15T09:23:00.000-05:00

Okay here it is. The first book I ever have ever bought on the day it came out is "Juiced" by Jose Canseco. People are saying that you shouldn't buy this book because it feeds the steriod witch hunt and puts money in the pocket of a guy who's only out for a buck. Whatever. Let's put it out up front: I do not care who he claims did steroids. It's his word against theirs and I won't put a bit of faith in what he says. I bought this book because it should be one of the most delightfully retarded reads ever. My AIM away messages are filled with gems from this wonderful gentleman, who as far as I'm concerned is one of the most quoteable players ever. I plan on giving a full and complete review once I finish (which should be the end of the week, given the reading level of this thing) but here's a teaser for the two of you who can't wait:

Jose on Mark McGwire's "All-American Athlete" status in the late 80's:

"It's great to have that kind of backing from America. You are set. You can never do anything wrong. You could rob a bank while raping a cheerleader and nothing would happen to you."

All that from a book that reads like a cross between a Seventeen magazine and self-help book. This just might end up being the best book I have ever read.

In other news you know it's the offical start of spring training when the first Ken Griffey Jr. comeback/big season article rears it's head. Gentleman. Start your boners.

Oh dear god. I wrote way too much on the Brewers.

2005-02-09T14:57:00.000-05:00

Milwakee Brewers 67-94, 6th place in the NL Central.

I am currently wearing a two sizes two small t-shirt commemorating Paul Molitor's 3000 hit, (which is done up in old school A.L. Brewers' colors and has entirely too much lettering), as an undershirt because I desperately need to do laundry. That combined with the boredom of talking A.L. East all the time has lead me to do a write-up on the Brewers. Oh boy Brewers fans, get ready for a season of some sort!

2004 Roster
Pos	Name	PA	VORP
C	Chad Moeller	349	-10.7
1B	Lyle Overbay	668	53.5
2B	Junior Spivey	263	15.1
3B	Wes Helms	306	3.4
SS	Craig Counsell	551	8.7
RF	Geoff Jenkins	681	26.1
CF	Scott Podsednik	713	19.3
LF	Brady Clark	420	22.0
ULT	Bill Hall	415	2.5
		-----	-----
		4366	139.9

Wow. How about that huh? Apparently the only thing Chad Moeller did all season was hit for the cycle. Oh no wait, he did have 62 other hits besides those. Oof. Beyond Lyle Overbay, there was not much too be excited about last year for the Brewers. To be fair, Spivey did go down with a a season ending shoulder injury and having Craig Cousell's retarded batting stance play such a big role can't help your chances, but still. It's pretty clear why they finished behind everyone's favorite whipping boys, the Pirates. Bill Hall played significant time and showed that he's not really full-time material yet. Scott Podsednik had a very disappointing year, although his 70 stolen bases were impressive in that Trival Pursuit kind of way. Geoff Jenkins had a solid season, and in the surprise of the Brewers' year (non-Ben Sheets division), stayed healthy enough to play the most games in his career.

2005 Roster
Pos	Name	PA	VORP
C	Damian Miller	298	5.2
1B	Lyle Overbay	529	18.9
2B	Junior Spivey	377	20.0
3B	Russ Branyan	233	17.2
SS	J.J. Hardy	352	19.3
RF	Geoff Jenkins	527	16.2
CF	Brady Clark	307	1.5
LF	Carlos Lee	584	25.7
ULT	Bill Hall	348	6.5
		-----	-----
	TOTAL	3555	130.5

Thankfully Chad Moeller isn't the starter anymore, now that they have the Damian Miller. Would it be too much to ask that they sign Pat Borders as back-up too? I want my catching tandem pushing 75 combined. Last year when he was with Oakland, Miller split time with Adam Melhuse so expect Moeller to still be involved. Overall the Brewers lineup has some changes that should improve them at least slightly. Podsednik is gone, replaced by Brady Clark in center. Brady had an alright year, but he's 31 and only has 2 seasons with any sort of extended playing time under his belt. He's expected to compete with Dave Krynzel for the starting job this spring. Carlos Lee comes over from Chicago in the Podsednik trade coming off back to back great seasons. He's only 28 and seems to be entering his prime. A surprisingly good pickup for the Brewers. Overbay broke out last year, once again showing that the Diamondbacks are clueless. As long as Spivey is healthy, the Brewers right side of the infield looks to be pretty decent.

The left side however, is a question mark. Russell Branyan is penciled in to be the starting third baseman. While I have a soft spot for Rusty since me and my friend Jojo saw his 1999 September call up game on TV, I don't particularly think he's a good major league player. Looking at his expected plate appearances, someone going to have to pick up the slack. I would guess that would be Wes Helms, or perhaps Bill Hall. Feeling confident Brewers fans?

The front office is hoping that J.J. Hardy can make the leap from 100 or so games in the minors to be their starting shortstop. By the way, he dislocated his shoulder on a check swing, ending his season last year. I hope the kid can take it, because that's sounds like a pretty tall order. BP seems to think he'll have a decent year, but take that with a grain of salt. Have you seen Dustin Pedroia's projection? If he's not ready, Bill Hall will step in. Hall played a few positions last year due to the injuries, but was underwhelming. All depending on what happens with injury, experience, and horrific strikeouts (Hi Rusty), he'll probably end up getting a good amount of playing time. My prediction: No matter what happens on the field, their mascot goes down a slide when they hit a home run. That's pretty rad.

Pitching for the Brewers last year (and by pitching, I mean Ben Sheets and the emergence of Doug Davis) was a source of pride for their fans:

2004 Rotation
Name	GS	IP	VORP
Doug Davis	34	207.3	48.8
Ben Sheets	34	237.0	66.8
Victor Santos	28	154.0	3.6
Wes Obermueller	20	118.0	-4.5
Chris Capuano	17	88.3	1.6
Ben Hendrickson	9	46.3	-3.3
	-----	-----	-----
TOTAL	142	850.9	113.0

Sheets exploded last season, breaking way, way, way the fuck out. He put up an ERA of 2.70, a 0.98 WHIP, and he had a strikeout to walk ratio of 8.25:1. He kept his team in every game by only going over 4 earned runs in a game 3 times (he let up 5 in a W, and 5 and 6 in losses.) Plus that 18K game against the Braves was a thing of filthy, filthy beauty. In a fair and just world, he wins the NL Cy Young. Why didn't he? He finished with a 12-14 record, that's why. Thanks a lot Brewers. His fantastic lineup gave him one of the worst run support ratios in the NL at 44/45 (runs against/runs scored). Call him the anti-Derek Lowe. Oh, and did I mention he had this season while pitching with a hernitated disc in his back? Doug Davis was a nice surprise and has emerged last year as a decent starter, and a lefty to boot. Beyond those two let's just say that last year Wes Obermueller was more valuable as a hitter than a pitcher. Oh and did you know Brooks Kieschnick was a pinch hitter, and a good one at that!? Yeah exactly. When you're talking about how good your pitchers hit...

2005 Rotation
Name	GS	IP	VORP
Ben Sheets	30	215.0	54.7
Doug Davis	26	152.0	18.6
Victor Santos	20	120.0	6.3
Chris Capuano	19	121.0	14.7
Ben Hendrickson	19	109.0	12.8
Jose Capellan	15	89.0	8.9
	-----	-----	-----
TOTAL	129	806.0	116.0

Next year looks like more of the same, but with more promise. Sheets is expected to continue his dominating ways, and his back is fixed. Depending on how much it actually affected him last year, we could see an amazing season from him. Doug Davis provides a good number 2 option, and then 4-5 pitchers battle it out for the last spots. Capuano's numbers were interesting last year and he showed some flashes of talent. The Brewers really seem to like Hendrickson and he'll get a chance to make the rotation. Obermueller is slated to start the season in the bullpen, but would probably return the rotation if necessary. Even if the bottom 3 or 4 of the rotation improve over their numbers last year, this staff should be better overall. Basically the Brewers are going to give their young talent every opportunity to shine next year, and enjoy Sheets' every start. I still don't expect them to do compete or anything crazy like that next year, but at least the race for 5th place should be interesting.

Here's the question though: are the Brewers going to be able to afford Sheets after this year? They signed him to a one year deal to avoid arbitration and want to get him on a multi-year deal sometime this spring. He's not going to be cheap, but he's also a great draw for a team that's just been sold. If the Brewers can't lock him down, I could see him being traded to someone who can around the deadline. Then again, maybe the Brewers will surprise me.

Mags is a done deal.

2005-02-09T09:20:00.000-05:00

Holy crap. I have to admit that Scott Boras, as much as he has fucked up baseball, is pretty amazing. Granted they can void the deal if his knee acts up again, but still. Even if he was in perfect health they still payed way too much about 2 years too late. If you click on the link to the USS Mariner on the right, you'll see they do a much better run down of the deal then I could do. The summary: they basically they gave Vlad money to Kevin Mench at worst, Trot Nixon at best. Poor, poor Tigers. Ty Cobb must be spinning in his grave over the sad state of the Tigers. Oh and the fact that they gave a dirty minority that much money.

EDIT: That link is an old one. www.ussmariner.com

Cubbies

2005-02-03T10:03:00.000-05:00

Yes, I agree fully that Burnitz is a product of Coors field. I guess considering the alternatives in the free market, they could have done a lot worse. Then again, not trading Sosa would have been a lot better from a baseball stand point. I also don't understand how missing one game, which he was fined and disciplined for, is worthy of immediate expulsion, but anyway. This Burnitz thing is worthy of an update to the Cubs forecast. BP did an article yesterday on the Sosa trade, and also laying out the Mets lineup later in the article (been there, done that).

So here's the revised table for the Cubbies.

2004 Roster
Pos	Name	PA	VORP
C	Michael Barrett	506	31.0
1B	Derrek Lee	688	43.3
2B	Todd Walker	424	25.0
3B	Aramis Ramirez	606	59.6
SS	Ramon Martinez	298	1.5
RF	Sammy Sosa	539	27.9
CF	Corey Patterson	687	27.9
LF	Moises Alou	675	51.5
2B/OF	N/A	0	0.0
		-----	-----
		4423	267.7

2005 Roster
Pos	Name	PA	VORP
C	Michael Barrett	350	11.6
1B	Derrek Lee	570	37.4
2B	Todd Walker	378	17.7
3B	Aramis Ramirez	567	25.9
SS	Nomar Garciaparra	504	38.8
RF	Jeromy Burnitz	443	15.9
CF	Corey Patterson	555	26.2
LF	Jason Dubois	235	13.2
2B/OF	Jerry Hairston	327	12.8
		-----	-----
	TOTAL	3929	199.5

Burnitz makes some difference, but not a lot. There's still a 500 PA discrepency that is accounting for some of the loss in VORP, but to be fair, with bench players the likes of Hollandsworth, Henry Blanco, and Neifi Perez, we can only credit them with another 15 or so VORP at best. We'll call that a net loss of 50 runs.

Now let's take a look at the fantastic rotation.

2004 Rotation
Name	GS	IP	VORP
Mark Prior	21	118.7	24.0
Kerry Wood	22	140.3	27.9
Carlos Zambrano	31	209.7	61.3
Greg Maddux	33	212.7	33.2
Glendon Rusch	16	129.7	27.8
Matt Clement	30	181.0	36.9
	-----	-----	-----
TOTAL	153	992.1	211.1

2005 Rotation
Name	GS	IP	VORP
Mark Prior	25	158.0	39.9
Kerry Wood	24	157.0	33.6
Carlos Zambrano	28	185.0	39.8
Greg Maddux	29	178.0	28.6
Glendon Rusch	19	120.0	17.8
Sergio Mitre	20	113.0	15.2
	-----	-----	-----
TOTAL	145	911.0	174.9

PECOTA hedges quite a bit on pitchers, with good reason as the variability is a lot higher. Especially with this combination of young pitchers with heavy workloads and/or injury history (Wood, Prior, Zambrano), and control/rely on the defense kind of guys (Maddux, Rucsh). Given Dusty Baker's general tendency to work pitchers hard, I wouldn't be comfortable assuming a heavier workload for any of them except Maddux, but then again no one would be shocked if any of the 3 young guys busted out a 220 IP stellar season. This is reflected in the high breakout rates (30% for Prior and Zambrano, 16% for Wood). That said, I'm prepared to boost the VORP by another 15 or so due to the low innings forecast and the fact that Angel Guzman has a decent projection even if none of these guys out lasts his. Still, losing Clement does hurt, and Zambrano is as likely to come back to being very good as he is to remain amazing. Net loss of 20 runs.

The Cubs were actually a better team than their won loss record would indicate last year, underperforming their 3rd order win percentage by 5 games. My analysis (which ignores the bullpen and some of the bench) has them losing 7 wins off the 3rd order record, which puts them almost right back where they were last year. The numbers say 87-75 and probably missing the playoffs. My gut feeling says that one of the pitchers will have a big year and push them into the hunt for the division and the WC.

Way off.

2005-02-03T08:23:00.000-05:00

Well apparently the Cubs answer to their outfield woes is the soon to be 36 year old man about town Jeremy Burnitz. I love when players extend their careers by going to Coors for a season and make everyone think that they are back. "Why yes Mr. Castilla, we can cash that for you."

Last year Burnitz' overall numbers were pretty impressive: .356/.559/.915 with 37 home runs and 110 RBI. You'd think getting a guy like that for $4.5 mil would be a steal. Except for the fact that he wasn't really that great away from Denver:

Home: .386/.670/1.057, 24 HR, 68 RBI
Away: .327/.448/.775, 13 HR, 42 RBI

By the way, Todd Zeile would kill for those away numbers. I'm not saying the Cubs shouldn't pick up Burnitz. As Colin showed further down, they don't have a ton of options. However, adding Burnitz pretty much solidifies that the Cubs will have one of the weaker outfields in the league. Intense fantasy baseball nutjob Eric Karabell from ESPN had a good point; If Burnitz comes in and matches his career averages, he'll put up the same numbers as Sosa did this year. I don't know how to feel about that. Chin up Chicago; you can probably still compete for the wild card with that sick rotation.

Kick back, relax, take a pull off of Shotzie.

2005-02-02T13:32:00.000-05:00

Alright, why not. I figured I'd try to tackle one of these team breakdown things that Colin has been doing. If can somehow manage to get it to work, maybe we can end up covering every team. Wouldn't that be a treat to the 3 people out there who read this thing? (4 if Justin got my email.) This is my first attempt at this stuff, so if the numbers are off, I apologize.

The Cincinnati Reds were an interesting team last year. Going into the season they seemed poised to compete in the NL Central. They ended up getting a career year out of Sean Casey, Adam Dunn showed his potential, and Ken Jr. managed to stay healthy for 83 games (the most since 2001) before tearing his griffeystrings again. Yet, they still finished in 4th place behind three tough teams in St. Louis, Houston, and Chicago. They did get hit by injuries pretty hard last year, but another factor to this disappointing finish can probably be attributed to the fact that I had to look who they had pitching for them not named Danny Graves.

2004 Roster
Pos	Name	PA	VORP
C	Jason LaRue	445	21.1
1B	Sean Casey	633	66.2
2B	D'Angelo Jimenez	652	35.3
3B	Juan Castro	316	0.8
SS	Barry Larkin	386	26.5
RF	Austin Kearns	246	6.2
CF	Ken Griffey Jr.	348	26.4
LF	Adam Dunn	681	64.8
OF	Wily Mo Pena	364	23.5
		-----	-----
		4435	294.3

2005 Roster
Pos	Name	PA	VORP
C	Jason LaRue	321	11.9
1B	Sean Casey	556	23.5
2B	D'Angelo Jimenez	550	23.6
3B	Joe Randa	414	4.0
SS	Felipe Lopez	315	13.0
RF	Austin Kearns	378	29.8
CF	Ken Griffey Jr.	310	21.6
LF	Adam Dunn	550	42.4
OF	Wily Mo Pena	370	29.3
		-----	-----
	TOTAL	4134	228.4

Unless you're still playing "Ken Griffey Jr.'s Slugfest", I included Wily Mo Pena for obvious reasons. Given recent history, he's more than likely going to get a good amount of playing time. Regardless, the Reds still project to have an enviable outfield next year. Although I'm curious to see if Adam Dunn's name gets bandied about in mid-season trade talks if the Reds falter again this year (*cough* redsox *cough*). I can't believe I just used the word bandied.

Thirdbase was obviously a hole last season. There was talk of moving Kearns to third, but it looks like that was scratched because of his injuries. You could do worse with Joe Randa, but then again you could also do a whole lot better. I got to give Joe props though for having such stick-to-it-ness. A group of us once went to Fenway with homemade "R-A-N-D-A" shirts on. They also said "F-R-A-N-K" for Frank Castillo on the back too, so now you know what you're dealing with.

One of the more interesting stories of this season will be who takes over for Larkin, and how well they do. I threw Lopez in there because he seems to be the frontrunner, but regardless shortstop will more than likely be filled by a very green player. How they handle taking over for a superstar should play a part in how the Reds do. Sean Casey's projections are down for obvious reasons, but I tend to think that last year was more breakout year than career year. I'd expect him to end the season with a much higher value.

2004 Rotation
Name	GS	IP	VORP
Paul Wilson	29	183.7	24.6
Aaron Harang	28	161.0	13.1
Jose Acevedo	27	157.7	-7.1
Cory Lidle	24	149.0	0.4
Brandon Claussen	14	66.0	-7.7
Todd Van Poppel	11	115.3	-6.5
	-----	-----	-----
TOTAL	133	832.7	16.8

2005 Rotation
Name	GS	IP	VORP
Paul Wilson	24	139.0	5.4
Eric Milton	27	164.0	10.9
Jose Acevedo	16	104.0	5.0
Brandon Claussen	17	101.0	4.7
Josh Hancock	14	86.0	3.9
Luke Hudson	15	94.0	11.0
	-----	-----	-----
TOTAL	113	688.0	40.9

How bad was Jose Acevedo last year? Remember in 2003 when Danny Graves started and the words "unmitigated disaster" were thrown around? Yeah, that's a good comparison. This offseason they let mediocrity's sweetheart Cory Lidle go, resigned number 1 starter by default Paul Wilson, and added Eric Milton to the mix. So yeah, the rotation really isn't that much better. If Claussen gets it going this year, they will probably have two or three young pitchers vying for the 5th spot. Regardless, the rotation should be at least marginally better than last year just due to their young pitcher's progression. Having Todd Van Poppel sit at home wondering why he sucks so bad should help too.

Just like last year, the Reds successes will probably be in the hands of their starters. If they can get some of their promising young guys to click, they could make some noise in the Central, especially with the drop off of competition after the Cardinals. Sounds a bit like 2004 doesn't it?

Cubs and Orioles lineups

2005-01-31T14:40:00.000-05:00

In support of Nick's post, here are the numbers:

2004 Roster
Pos	Name	PA	VORP
C	Michael Barrett	506	31.0
1B	Derrek Lee	688	43.3
2B	Todd Walker	424	25.0
3B	Aramis Ramirez	606	59.6
SS	Ramon Martinez	298	1.5
RF	Sammy Sosa	539	27.9
CF	Corey Patterson	687	27.9
LF	Moises Alou	675	51.5
DH	N/A	0	0.0
		-----	-----
		4423	267.7

2005 Roster
Pos	Name	PA	VORP
C	Michael Barrett	350	11.6
1B	Derrek Lee	570	37.4
2B	Todd Walker	378	17.7
3B	Aramis Ramirez	567	25.9
SS	Nomar Garciaparra	504	38.8
RF	Jerry Hairston	327	12.8
CF	Corey Patterson	555	26.2
LF	Todd Hollandsworth	197	9.3
LF2	Jason Dubois	235	13.2
		-----	-----
	TOTAL	3683	192.9

There's a considerable playing time difference, which I've partially offset by including a shared job at LF. Still, there are a lot of fragile players in there, and someone's going to have to pick up a lot of PA's. Looking at the roster, there's not a lot of hope there, which isn't too shocking when your starting corner outfielders are Hollandsworth and Hairston. Sorting by projected VORP, the next 3 guys are prospects that I've never heard of, Richard Lewis, Kevin Collins, and Brandon Sing, and the guy after that is Ben Grieve. Ouch. I think we'll all agree that committing 5 years to Magglio would be a ridiculous risk, but they need some help. If I were Jim Hendry I'd seriously consider putting together a ridiculously lucrative one year offer to Magglio and see if he wants to go the Nomar route and prove he's alright before testing the market again.

So how do the Orioles fare?

2004 Roster
Pos	Name	PA	VORP
C	Javy Lopez	638	56.3
1B	Rafael Palmeiro	651	26.4
2B	Brian Roberts	736	22.2
3B	Melvin Mora	636	73.6
SS	Miguel Tejada	725	73.0
RF	Jay Gibbons	380	-1.7
CF	Luis Matos	359	-8.1
LF	Larry Bigbie	531	14.8
DH	David Newhan	412	24.5
		-----	-----
		5068	281.0

2005 Roster
Pos	Name	PA	VORP
C	Javy Lopez	496	31.9
1B	Rafael Palmeiro	503	21.7
2B	Brian Roberts	589	19.4
3B	Melvin Mora	522	39.2
SS	Miguel Tejada	647	50.6
RF	Sammy Sosa	440	25.3
CF	Luis Matos	427	13.2
LF	Larry Bigbie	472	12.8
DH	David Newhan	460	14.4
		-----	-----
	TOTAL	4556	228.5

The trade helps, but does it help enough? PECOTA doesn't seem to think so. For a pretty stable roster, there's a lot of decline going on. I suppose that's to be expected when last year's crop of free agent signings all had great year's and are past the traditional peak and/or require medication to get erections. On the bright side, Luis Matos was horrendous last year, so they can hope for some improvement with him.

Slamming Sammy and the Rediculous Deals.

2005-01-31T14:04:00.000-05:00

Obviously one of the bigger baseball stories right now is the impending trade of Sammy Sosa to the Orioles. The Cubs would get back Jerry Hairston, Jr. and a couple of borderline minor leaguers. Sosa abandons his team and disrespects not only the Cubs, but an entire city. Now they have to turn around and unload his big name and declining skills for pennies on the dollar. If I had to guess, I would say Hairston takes over as the Cubs right fielder, considering that Todd Walker's Iron Skillet Mitt is firmly entrenched at second (lord knows you don't want him playing any other positions). Hairston had a decent season last year, despite being injured and the emergence of Brian Roberts. The injuries are a bit of a question mark (he's only played over 150 games once in 6 seasons ) but he's still relatively young. If he puts it together in his “prime” years, he could be an alright leadoff/number 2 hitter. A potential lineup:

CF Corey Patterson
RF Jerry Hairston
SS Nomar
1B Derrek Lee
3B Aramis Rameriez
2B Todd Walker
LF ????
C Michael Barrett
P Whatever black hole takes the mound that day.

Seems a little underwhelming, but I'll let Colin's eventual mathmatical breakdown of the roster prove or disprove the validity of that statement. At inital glace though, I would argue that the loss of Alou will hurt the Cubs more than replacing Sosa with Hairston. As a Cubs fan would you feel comfortable with him hypothetically taking Sammy's place? I would, if only because Sammy shouldn't be getting by on his rep anymore. The guy has been in a steady decline over the past three years (I know you love the VORP, so here's some evidence: 2001 - 125.4, 2002 - 69.5, 2003 - 42.1). I would even go so far as to say that Kevin Millar was more valuable than Sosa last year, albeit while playing 25 more games. Wicked awesome home run hops aside, would you want .383/.474/.857 at $3.3m or .332/.517/.849 at $16.9m? (Look numbers!) That's not even taking into account that Millar was shit until just about the all-star break. All things being equal, he opens his stance up earlier and I think the case of Millar over Sosa last year becomes even more cut and dry.

To me, the Orioles make this move because it’s a big name move and they really haven’t done much else this offseason. They lose out on Delgado so they go get what Delgado will be in 2 years. They go into the season with what could be a potent lineup, but their pitching still seems suspect. Even with the $10m the Cubs are rumored to throw in, in my opinion this trade is going to end up being garbage for both sides. For all the people bitching initially that the Sox traded Nomar for less value on the dollar; take a look at how much worse it could have been.

Also in other news, the Tigers reportedly have thrown out a figure of 5-years, $50m for Magglio Ordonez. The same Magglio Ordonez who had to have controversial treatment on his injured knee in a foreign country. The only person pumped about this deal is Bill Bavasi, since inking this deal makes Richie Sexson look like a sound investment.

sad

2005-01-31T13:13:00.000-05:00

I was just admiring our blog and I noticed that we have a link to Doug Pappas' business of baseball page. I'm not sure if everyone is aware or not, but Doug passed away in 2004. I just clicked on the link to his page and apparently no one thought to take it over, update it, or even put some kind of indication that it is done. It's kind of sad. RIP DP.

The Mets offense and (more importantly) a new tool for blogging

2005-01-28T14:51:00.000-05:00

This morning I was thinking about how I can divert myself from work for a bit, and I remembered that last year I built a template to do a hot stove analysis of each team. I ended up doing a grand total of two teams. Well, I got to thinking of edits I could make to the thing to make it a little more interesting, and then in typical fashion I kept working on it til I had something. Not so good for my productivity at work, but it should lead to some interesting articles. So here is the first one. You're probably wondering why I would do this for the Mets. No real reason except that I commented on the Mets offseason earlier so they were on the brain a bit. Also, I'm getting sick of the same old analysis of the AL East every year. Let's get on with it.

I now present to you, the Mets offense:

2004 Roster
Pos	Name	PA	VORP
C	Jason Phillips	412	-5.3
1B	Mike Piazza	528	29.9
2B	Jose Reyes	229	5.2
3B	Todd Zeile	396	0.4
SS	Kazuo Matsui	509	23.7
RF	Richard Hidalgo	359	7.4
CF	Mike Cameron	562	27.0
LF	Cliff Floyd	457	20.0
DH	N/A	0	0.0
		-----	-----
		3452	108.3

2005 Roster
Pos	Name	PA	VORP
C	Mike Piazza	389	24.2
1B	Doug Mientkiewicz	393	12.7
2B	Jose Reyes	443	12.7
3B	David Wright	472	32.4
SS	Kazuo Matsui	535	25.9
RF	Mike Cameron	437	24.4
CF	Carlos Beltran	607	51.6
LF	Cliff Floyd	431	23.1
DH	N/A	0	0.0
		-----	-----
	TOTAL	3707	207.0

I think at this point we're comfortable enough with VORP that I don't have to explain it too much, but basically it's a measure of runs over replacement level, the key point being that you can compare 2 years and get an idea of how many runs scored we can expect this year versus last year. The 2004 VORP's are actual and the 2005 VORP's are from the PECOTA weighted average forecast. After adjusting for the disparity in plate appearances (which isn't necessarily required, since a better offense will come to the plate more, but anyway), it looks like the Mets have increased their offesive potential by 84 runs, which is a lot. Getting Mike Piazza back behind the plate will allow them to play everyone's favorite baseball hoarder, Doug Mintyfreshkevitzski, at 1st base and stick sinkhole Jason Phillips on the bench. Speaking of sinkholes, 86 year old Todd Zeile got the most plate appearances at 3B on the team last year, and hit like a AAA player. Putting David Wright in full time will be a big boost, as he had a great year in limited playing time in 2004, posting a VORP of 21 in under 300 PA's. Lastly, the biggest single impact will be felt in the outfield, where Carlos Beltran takes over in CF, pushing Mike Cameron to RF (probably), and Richard Hidalgo back to the state of Texas. Carlos is good for half of the boost in scoring all by himself. It's a shame he got sent to a pitcher's park, cause I'd sure like to see the raw numbers he could put up otherwise. It also sucks for him that he's now in a league with Bonds and Pujols.

Before any hypothetical Mets fans get all excited, their pitching staff looks like it's headed for a nice decline. I didn't format the chart for that yet, but PECOTA predicts big declines for Glavine and Trachsel and basically treading water for Benson and Zambrano. Pedro's got a nice forecast, but unfortuantely he's replacing a great year by Al Leiter. On the whole the rotation will give back 40 or so of those runs.

Assuming the bullpen and bench are a wash, that's a net gain of around 40 runs. Their "3rd order" record (which is based on all their peripherals and is generally a better predictor than the real record) was 77-85. Based on my rough analysis, I'm sorry to report that all their big signings and money spent amount to about a .500 season for 2005. So much for all the stories about them stepping up to be an elite team.

I should probably actually do some work today. Hopefully I'll use this template to analyze some more teams before the season starts, but no promises. If the other bloggers want a copy, let me know.

Admitting my non-hatred of all things Yankee.

2005-01-27T13:28:00.000-05:00

I was going to start a bit of a "thing" where I would try to convince all of the other bloggers on here to pick a baseball signing and break it down in regards to contract, performance, impact, fuckability, etc., but I'm apparently still too in football mode.

There has definitely been some notice taken with the dismantling of the Colts and Steelers in regards to the individual players on the defense. Especially Teddy Bruschi, who deserves the underrated mantle, much, much more than Tom Brady. I guess me perpetuating the underrated stereotype is from the regular season media coverage. Back when they were racking up wins and every week the mediots would tell me that they are lucky and have good schemes and mediorce talent, etc. Why do I even listen to what their retards say? It's beyond me.

In reference to Law's ego: he has a huge one and that's why he's gone. He probably would have been gone before the year started if he didn't eventually calm down and shut his mouth. This is a perfect example of the way the Pats do business. Law has become bigger than the team, even going so far as to call Belichick a liar, and he will be jettisoned this offseason. Without a doubt, now that he hasn't shown up for any of the playoff games. The Yankees on the other hand are stuck with a shell of an MVP who admitted to using steroids. This, however relates to guaranteed contracts, which is a whole other, completely irrelevant conversation. I can see the similarities between the '96-'00 Yanks and the '01-current Pats. There I said it. I'm no less of a Boston sports fan for it either. I can't speak for anyone else though, as I once mentioned the Jeter/Brady analogy to a friend and he just about killed me. By the way, I would also like to state that I understand and agree with Colin's point that the backlash is the same in both team's cases, which goes double for my "they're the esessence of a team how could you hate them" argument. It's just nice to be in that role for once.

As a side note: I can't believe Jimmy Key actually started 2 games in the 1996 Series for the Yankees. I can't even picture that guy without a huge set of glasses, pitching for his weight in Toonies.

NFL comments

2005-01-27T11:45:00.000-05:00

As an avid reader of Football Outsiders and discusser of football for a solid 2 and a half weeks, I am now clearly qualified to write in depth commentary on the Patriots, the Super Bowl, and the sports media vis a vis the NFL. Prepare to be awed by my intense knowledge.

In response to Nick's blog of this morning, I have a few comments, some of which support his observations and some of which are a little different. I kid about my total lack of knowledge of the sport prior to a few weeks ago, but it is true that I don't watch a lot of football during the regular season. I do, however, attempt to keep up with the Patriots and have some idea of who the best teams in general are. With that, here are some opinions.

Nick hit the nail on the head when he talks about how the Patriots' opponents have a tendendcy to understate their dominance. The past 2 games have been very telling in that regard. Going into the Colts matchup, the general media line was that no one could stop the Colts or Peyton Manning, coming off what may possibly be the best offensive season ever. The Pats never trailed in the game and held said offense to 3 points. All of a sudden the line changes and the Colts were a severely flawed team that was too reliant on the long passing game and had a shitty defense. The snowy weather gets credit and Peyton Manning is a choker. There's one guy (I think an Eagles fan) on the Outsiders site who wont shut up about how the Pats defense didn't really dominate the Colts, the offense did with a long drive that ate up most of the 3rd quarter. All the excuses and revisionist justifications fall short of recognizing the truly great game plan and execution that the Pats showed. It was a balanced team effort to hold the Colts to 3 points and it will be that way whenever they are on. Basically the Pittsburgh game is the same story. Before the game, the naysayers went on and on about how great the Steelers' running game and defense was, and that the Pats had never faced such an all around good and balanced team. After the Pats serious dominance in that game (on the road no less), people went on and on about how Pittsburgh has a flawed and one dimensional offense, Bill Cowher sucks, Rothlisberger was an overrated rookie, and the Pats got lucky with turnovers and good field position. The same Outsiders guy claims that the Pats defense won the game and the offense didn't do a lot. Hogwash. The Steelers were 16-1 and had schooled both Super Bowl teams earlier in the year. They are a great team, the Pats are just better. They make other teams make mistakes and they are amazing at capitalizing on them, which looks like luck if you're desparate for an excuse.

The parts I disagree with Nick on sort of fall into the "intangibles" camp. As a Yankees fan, I can 100% relate to the mass non-NE fan backlash against the Patriots. Before you jump on that, let me explain a few things and remind you that although the Yankees team of the past few seasons has had an infusion of less than likeable personalities and steroids scandals, they were a very respectful and likeable group (circa 1998 for example). As Aaron Schatz has cleverly pointed out, Tom Brady is the Derek Jeter of the NFL. It's really only your own biases that makes one admirable and one hated. The Patriots defense is famous for their "no respect" image, despite vast amounts of media coverage and accolades for guys like Bruschi, Law (no ego?), Seymour, and Harrison. Speaking of Rodney Harrison, from what I've heard he's pretty much uniformly disliked around the league, trash talks constantly, and has been accused of cheap hits repeatedly. In summary, the Patriots are a normal professional sports team in terms of personality and ego. They are coached well enough and they win enough that it might look otherwise, but I think a lot of people misread the causality relationship on that one. They are the 1998 Yankees. People hate them and their fans simply because they win a lot, and they make up other reasons to justify it.

As for the Super Bowl, last night's Outsiders article is pretty entertaining. Here are some of my favorite quotes:

Twelve days until kickoff, and otherwise sane educators have turned into Vizzini from The Princess Bride. But the television pundits are no better. “The Patriots know how to prepare.” “The Eagles are hungrier.” “The Patriots are trying to become a dynasty.” “The Eagles are just happy to be here.” “The Patriots are satisfied after two championships.” Lazy conjecture, meaningless hypotheses, amateur psychoanalysis masquerading as football knowledge, all foisted on the public by Skip Bayless and Sean Salisbury, Dan Marino and Tony Kornheiser, Larry King and Star Jones. Everyone’s talking football; no one’s saying anything.
“It will take a minor miracle to beat the Patriots,” Berliner intones. Two Super Bowls and one World Series was all it took to turn Boston commentators into strutting New Yorkers.

My take on the Super Bowl is that the Eagles are a great team. They have no obvious weakness (you'll hear conflicting stories about both their rush defense and rush offense, but the trends and stats bear out that they are pretty solid in both areas), a great QB, solid players on both sides of the ball, and a great coaching staff. Despite all of that, my gut tells me to take the Pats to cover the 7 point spread. Why? Basically because of the reasons I posted above. The Pats have a recent history that shows that they just out prepare and out execute virtually everyone they face, especially in big games. The Eagles will be tough, but so were the Colts and the Steelers. The Eagles haven't been tested and they have a history of choking in big games. The concept of "clutch" may not exist over the course of a 700 plate appearance baseball season, but a one game contest that's watched by millions and scrutinized mercilessly is another story. I wouldn't be shocked if it was a close game, and the Eagles do have a chance to win, but my gut tells me the Pats will win comfortably, again.

Title: Eye dun dough no shit.

2005-01-27T08:58:00.000-05:00

I've been thinking about the Patriots quite a lot lately, given that they are poised to join some of the greatest teams in history in about 11 days (although you could argue that they are already there.) The Patriots have basically been dominating the league for about 3.5 years know, but yet no one really seems to have realized just how dominating they've been outside of New England. These last two playoff games seemed to have changed public opinon a bit, but there is still that theory that the Pats have been lucky or worse, cheated to get where they are today. The facts are there: 2 out of the past 3 Super Bowls, the longest consecutive winning streak including the playoffs in NFL history, and arguably changing the way a team can be run. The cheating thing is rediculous. Are you upset that they pushed the rules as far as they could go, or are you really just pissed that your team didnt'? This is a team that people who are disgusted with athletes should love. No big egos, everyone has their place, no infighting and bitching, just results. Then again those results usually mean that your favorite team just got owned and you're grasping at everything to rationalize how your team got dismantled by a bunch of "nobodies". I will definitely agree that they have been come so underrated that they are now overratedly underrated, but that's what happens when you're winning the way they do. They don't win flashy, they very rarely blow a team out and if you were to just look at final scores you would think that they barely won. That's what makes this team so successful: they take your gameplan and use it against you. Reggie Wayne of the Colts said after the first round that the only reason they lost was not that the Pats were better, but that they didn't play their game. There's a perfect summation. No one plays "their game" against the Pats defense. It's not allowed, they don't let you. The key to their success on the other side of the ball is that they don't have a game. Everything changes week to week and it always changes to what they think you're not planning for. Example: first game of the season, first start since the Curtis Martin era that the Pats have a stud running back. First drive is nothing but passes. This is the same thing that will happen in Jacksonville. I'm going this way for two very important reasons: 1. The Patriots have done nothing since 2000 to make me think that they won't win any big game they participate in. 2. I really, really hate the city of Philadelphia and want nothing but failure for their sports teams.

After finishing this I realized this is the biggest "tell me something I don't know" post of all time. Did you know I have a huge crush on Corey Dillon? Well okay then.

son of a bitch!

2005-01-26T16:59:00.000-05:00

This website and/or my browser just ate a long blog that I made. How incredibly frustrating after a 5 month hiatus. Rest assured that it would have been the most insightful and hilarious blog to date. Motherfucker.

Reader's digest version:

It's been 5 months but I'm bored today, emails were exchanged on fantasy baseball, PECOTA 2005 values are out, and I quit the Shizz at work. This adds up to more potential blogging for me.
Red Sox won the World Series. Happy for good fans, nothing I can do about the annoying ones. Season tickets = good. Went to 1 game in each ALDS, ALCS, and WS.
Yankees offseason deals: Wright = bad; Womack = bad but short; Pavano = not good, but not as bad as Wright; Johnson = good considering the circumstances that the team has made for itself; Martinez = irrelevant.
Red Sox offsesason deals: Clement = pretty good considering the market; Miller = good; Renteria = not so good; Varitek = overpriced but important to fans; Minky = good; Not giving in to Pedro = good.
Other offseason deals: Mets got 2 good players fora shit load of cash but are still the Mets. Marlins and Phillies should also be decent. Atlanta always finds a way. Therefore NL East will be interesting.
I've been watching football and reading a ton of www.footballoutsiders.com. I'm 6-0 vs the spread in the playoffs (from when I started paying attention). I'm leaning towards the Pats (-7) in the Super Bowl but that's a big spread. I'll be in the Bahamas for the game and the parade. Poor me.

Trust me, the original was better.

long time no

2005-01-26T16:17:00.000-05:00

BLOG

One quick answer.

2004-08-30T08:49:00.000-05:00

Four and a half back now. Yankees and Red Sox are now back being head and shoulders above the league. Viva September.

Some Answers

2004-08-18T22:29:00.000-05:00

Colin, it was a nice surprise to see that you had blogged during my jaunt to the confederacy and back. I'm gonna try to answer your questions briefly:

1) Sox are more than 10 games back because of a litany of injuries (the most notable, in my mind, is Trot's absence for the majority of the season), god awful defense (who would've guessed that replacing todd walker with pokey reese in the offseason would result in worse fielding stats? yes, i realize that the nomarscandalgateinjurything forced the regular play of bellhorn, who despite playing well is actually a downgrade from walker), and terrible coaching. did you know the sox are something pathetic like 3-15 in one run games?
2) I can't really explain the Rangers. Prolific offense, very solid defensively, tons of terrible pitchers whose deals with the devil haven't expired yet.
3) Cardinals are the best team in baseball because all the guys you mentioned are amazing, and their pitching staff has been extremely good. their bullpen is 4th in MLB in ARP. I'm not lying, see for yourself (oh yeah, you're not seeing things - texas is #2):

Team Bullpen Totals (teams ranked by Adjusted Runs Prevented):
Team IP R ARA APR RRA ARP
-----------------------------------------------
LAD 325.0 113 3.42 48.7 3.61 42.1
TEX 336.7 152 3.48 48.3 3.71 39.7
SDP 329.3 139 3.92 31.1 3.69 39.6
STL 288.3 110 3.76 32.5 3.86 29.3

Similarly, their starting pitchers have been extremely solid. Nothing thats gonna get any statgeek all hot and bothered, but with the exception of matt morris, it'd be tough to find a more effective starting rotation at this point in the season:

VORP
Matt Morris 10.5
Chris Carpenter 31.4
Jason Marquis 28.6
Woody Williams 26.1
Jeff Suppan 25.9

4) I think the right answer to this question was "yes". Why exactly does larry bowa still have a job? Shouldn't they think about outsourcing the managerial position in philly to bangladesh or something? I'm pretty sure some underpaid dweeby guy there could probably get that team to the playoffs.

I refrained from commenting about all the deadline trades because I felt really saturated with all the coverage about it here in Boston. Obviously, trading a guy like Nomar is a big deal. But I think this bill simmon's article summarized my thoughts best, and hit the nail right on the head. I heart the boston sports guy.

I do like the trade from a baseball standpoint - sox were just horrible on D, and they got a couple more gold glovers. Sure, the dudes can't hit, or at least, haven't been hitting this year. But maybe they learn to use the monster (meinkads;fk, i'm looking at you lefty contact guy) and have a 60 games in a sox uni. Who knows.

I nearly pooped when I saw the Cardinals got Larry Walker. Just what they need: another slugger.

Also, I don't care how the Yankees or the new york media try to spin it - the yankees made a horrible deal in trading Jose Contreras for Esteban Loaiza. Ready for my hardcoah analysis, here it comes. Loaiza is a terrible pitcher who had one good season which (gasp!) happened to be a contract year. The only upside to the guy is that hes consistent - every game he gives up 5 or 6 runs and gives you 4 to 5 innings. If you'd rather have that then a guy who pitches well against every team except the red sox, then I guess its a good trade.

I need a title

2004-08-10T10:32:00.000-05:00

Wow, the blog is so fancypants now. If you imaginary readers only knew the great options we have now you'd be amazed.

It used to be that you had to know html to do bullets
or change text color
or align center
or right
or bold and italics
or block quote, whatever the hell that means.

Anyway, here I am blogging. Why am I blogging you ask? Well, there's been no blog for a month, Nick is on his honeymoon, Derek is helping his girlfriend move to North Carolina, and I have serious problems focusing at work. When I was at Nick's wedding on Saturday, I met his friend and "best man," Justin. Justin commented about how I'm a huge geek. I know, you're thinking that I must get that all the time and it's not very comment worthy. The reason it stuck with me though is that Justin came to that conclusion by seeing "that website" that we made, aka this blog. Yes, that's correct. We officially have 2 verified people who have read the blog (still out there Brian?). So proud.

So I should probably try and give some baseball related content. Honestly I don't have a great sense of what's going on in baseball this year. I've been really busy and focused on other things, which I suppose is both good and bad. What I do know comes from my daily checks on my 4 fantasy teams and the standings in the morning paper. I will now comment on both.

As for the standings, there are some things that are very surprising to me having not really been paying attention. I would be grateful if someone explain to me a few things.

Why are the Red Sox 10 games back? This was supposed to be the year when the Yankees and Sox were so head and shoulders above the rest of the league that the wild card was pointless. Discuss.
How the hell did the Rangers suddenly pull it all together. I know they have a young and talented offensive core, but that's been true for years. Did their pitching staff suddenly discover voodoo? I see they are slipping now and I say it's about time.
Similarly, how are the Cardinals the best team in the league? I know they have this great core of stars in Pujols, Rolen, Edmonds, and Renteria. Last I checked you needed more than that to win.
The Braves are doing it again. I don't know if this is more a story about Philly and the way they waste talent or Atlanta and the way they somehow succeed despite losing talent every freakin year.

Someone please do me a favor and explain. My attention span is about used up, so maybe I'll talk about the fantasy season the next time I decide to blog.

PS - Where are your comments on the trade deadline deals?

all star real-time blog

2004-07-13T19:44:00.000-05:00

8:43
Game still hasn't started yet. Maybe Fox could extend this pregame a bit more? I'm sad its coming to a close already. Who had -8 for the time in minutes after the first pitch til Buck or McCarver said something stupid? "Before last year no one knew who Hank Blalock was." Yeah, because he was such a noname, nochance prospect. Also, not enough Yankees on this team. Jebus.

8:45
Clemens taking warm up tosses. OHMYGAWD I wonder if he and Piazza are gonna set things straight with a little snoodling? Nothing like a snoodle to put a lame story to bed, once and for all.

8:46
No snoodle yet.

8:50
Clemens registers an out, and part of me is sad. The rest of me doesn't care. Despite the fact that this time it counts.

8:51
Manny, I love you. 3-0 AL, top of the first. Whats with A-Rod's white sneakers? Maybe Sully's shirts are right: Gayrod indeed.

8:56
Sweet play by Kent. Flashing the leather, Todd Walker style, and showing the range of a Range Rover with a quarter tank of gas.

8:59
Oh good lord, Soriano with the jack. Did you guys know that McCarver believes sliders go farther than any other pitch? Maybe its because of all the backspin that Joe Morgan was emphasizing last night during the Home Run Derby. Why is Danny Kolb warming up? Oh, I forgot, because it counts. In the meantime, as Fox went to commerical the dream team of announcers talked over that retarded animated baseball. This is the only time you'll ever hear me say this:
wait for it...kudos buckcarver.

9:04
Mulder in the house - Ilove this guy. If he were on my fantasy team, I'd have a huge mancrush on him. Of course, I was too busy picking real performers like Bret Boone and Angel Berroa. Oh, the horror.

9:08
What the hell was that route Vlad took on Sosa's fly to left? Looked like Mossad counterintelligence tactics of some sort. That, or the hokey pokey. Hmmm...

9:12
Catwoman may be the worst comic book movie, ever. I'm not kidding - somewhere John Leguizamo is curled up in a corner with his binkie, wondering aloud to his maker how someone could produce a movie worse than Spawn.

9:15
Whoever had 30 minutes as the amount of time it'd take me to lose interest in the game, drop a line at youllgetnothingandlikeit@stump832.freeservers.com for your prize.

9:27
12 minutes since the last time I had something interesting to say. Of course, its debatable whether its 12 minutes or 27 years. Two easy innings for mancrush-of-2005-fantasy-team Mark Mulder.

9:30
F Scooter. Seriously.

9:39
I have no idea what happened in the last 9 minutes.

9:44
Obviously Bonds should be walked with 2 outs and no one on in the 3rd inning because....(say it with me now)....this time it counts. I'd love to see Loaiza get lit up here, mostly because I think the guy's a fraud. Hes a fraud on par with that chick from south of Boston who faked having cancer to raise money for herself. Seriously, he is that bad.

9:54
McCarver-"In the history of baseball, not one significant thing has ever been said between a first baseman and the runner on first." Folks, this isn't just some dude making that statement. This is the king of insignificant statements - its like Einstein saying that some physicist was pretty smart. Think about that for a moment.

9:56
Ortizzle draws the walk. I like it. White shoes up at the plate again. Big Poppa chugging home from first. Get the boy some O2.

10:06
Apparently CC jr is 27" long and weighs 27 lbs at the age of 10 months?! Good lord. Anyone think CC has seen this? That said, CC is a nasty pitche. Great ability to change speeds, nice hook. If he can keep a smooth delivery and avoid injury, I think hes got a great career ahead of him.

10:12
You guys know that 2 out rallies are the most difficult type of rally? Same here. Since it counts this time, it makes it even tougher. CC is getting bushwacked. Get the boy an Angus burger and a shake, stat.

10:14
Whats the story with a video tribute to Roger Clemens? I have a real problem with tributes to dudes who don't have enough respect for themselves or the fans of baseball to make their retirement final.

10:17
Roger would be remissed about something. I have no idea about what, but the grammar nazi in me couldn't resist. ps....no snoodling during the tribute.

10:26
I've officially lost all interest in this game. Why are the starters still playing? Oh wait, thats right....because this time it... Nevermind. I'm done.

10:37
I'm back, because I have nothing better to do. I get confused between Craig Wilson and Jack Wilson. Craig just made his first all star appearance, and I got confused cause I didn't see that big moptop hanging out from under his lid. For awhile, before I saw a picture of those guys, I had no idea they weren't the same person. I can't wait until Fox goes high-def so I can see each individual pockmark on Kevin Kennedy's ugly mug.

10:40
I think McCarver just lost it in his shorts after that montage of Jeter "clutch" performances. To be honest, that catch he made against the Sox was completely pedestrian. The catch itself was a can of corn. The dive into the seats was ridiculous, and poorly executed - he hit that old bag in the second row in the middle of her stumps and she barely moved. Come on.

10:42
Ortizzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz.

10:46
Now I'm officially done. All in all, a good night for a Sox fan. Clemens got shelled, Sox hit 2 bombs and 4 rbis. Did you guys know that Ted Lilly has late movement on his ball? I like it early and often on mine. Ba dum dum.

Things could be worse.

2004-07-02T09:30:00.000-05:00

Both Nick Bierbrodt and John Wasdin started for the Rangers this week. I've heard rumors that Brian Rose will be starting in the weekend series and that they've signed Dave Steib to be the closer. Oh and I lied about things being worse...the Rangers are in first.

I wish I had the energy to write about last night, (now known as "The Low Point of the 2004 Season") but I don't. The past month has been terrible and last night was just the kick to the face while we were already down. What's worse is that there is no one thing that it can be blamed on. Plain and simple, the Sox are playing like shit. Aside from Ortiz and Manny, this team has no fire whatsoever. Nomar should be wearing a U.S. Postal Service hat with the way he's mailing it in. (Look, I know he's still in "Spring Training", but can you honestly say from his face that he's pumped to be playing? I can't.) Jeter showed him up big time with that play last night. Yes, I am giving Jeter props. That play was balls out baseball right there. Regardless, last night's game was either a wake up call or the final nail. I guess we'll have to wait and see tonight.

Also, don't ever do that glove switch, 5 infielders thing again. After all that, it was completely pointless. Unless your goal was to look as amateurish as possible, because in that realm it was All-Star caliber.

Bah.

What the??

2004-06-24T13:43:00.000-05:00

So the Mariners are claiming that they are still in the race...uh, today's lineup says otherwise:

Lineup
I. Suzuki RF
R. Winn LF
J. Cabrera 2B
J. Olerud 1B
E. Martinez DH
R. Aurilia SS
S. Spiezio 3B
H. Bocachica
P. Borders

Jolbert Cabrera in the 3 hole? Bocachica? Cryo-Borders? Oy vey.

Beltran Watch

2004-06-23T21:16:00.000-05:00

Major League Baseball : News

So, the early afternoon reports of a menage a trois between the A's, Royals, and Astros appear to be untrue. For those too lazy to hit the links, the basic deal would have been as follows:
A's send Teahen (3B, AAA), possibly minor league pitcher to Astros
Astros send Octavio Dotel to A's, Teahen and AAA C prospect J. Buck to the Royals.
Royals send Beltran to the Astros.

The link above intimates that the deal never was close, but Ken Rosenthal says it was due to the Astros unwillingness to cover Dotel's salary. Leave it to Billy Beane to fleece a pair of trading partners, and then still demand financial relief.

I've tried looking at the deal from a bunch of angles, but I just can't find one where the deal makes sense to anybody but the A's. They give up a marginal 3B prospect who will most likely NEVER see time with their big league club, and a pitching prospect not named Joe Blanton. In return, they get one of the most dominant relievers over the last 3 years. The A's are 26th in the league with just 13 saves. I couldn't find the number of blown saves, but I think its 9. That 9 game difference would put them in first in the AL West by 8 games, and in the lead for the wild card by 6 games in the win column. I think its safe to say Dotel would be a guy who could certainly plug that hole.

Meanwhile, the Astros make a thin bullpen even thinner. While the Astro's Adjusted Runs Prevented is 23.2, good enough for third in the majors, almost half of that is all due to Brad Lidge. By installing Lidge as the closer, you lose his work in key high-leverage situations, and you end up moving someone like Dan Miceli (?!) into high leverage situations. If I'm Hunsicker, I don't dig that at all. Not to mention the fact that with Beltran's arrival, you end up moving Biggio to 2B and Kent to 3B - I don't buy into the intangibles school much, but common sense says veterans like Kent probably won't take kindly to switching positions for the new cool kid who just moved in to the neighborhood. Its a nice upgrade to an offense which is most likely due for an uptick anyways. To top it all off, its a 3 month rental - the Astros are historically a cheap team, and won't be players in the Beltran game this winter.

Finally, the Royals. I guess they get a decent set of prospects, but I'd expect more for a talent of Beltran's caliber. Buck was rushed through the minor leagues, and has issues with his defense and ability to make for contact, and Teahen is strictly a marginal talent, unless you drink Beane's moneyball kool-aid without thinking twice.

Whats my point? Whether he knows it or not, Hunsicker did the right thing by not pulling the trigger on this deal. My prediction of Beltran to the A's could still happen, but I'm now doubtful they'll be willing to pick up his salary, which even just 3 months of is nothing to scoff at ($4.5 million?).

Fuck John Denver.

2004-06-17T10:38:00.000-05:00

Now that son, is what you call a title.

I don't like interleague play. Please, don't worry. I'm not about to recycle what all the flapping faces have been saying every year ad nasuem. For example:

- "It cheapens the World Series." Yeah, because the reason I get so pumped up for the World Series is that sheer THRILL that can only come from watching an AL team facing an NL team. Gimme a break.

- "Pitchers have to hit, which they aren't used to and basically puts AL teams playing in a home park at a disadvantage." Ok yeah, pitchers from the AL do look stupid. Especially when players like Bronson Arroyo bat with a double flapped Mark Bellhorn helmet. But really, if you look at most number 9 hitters in the AL, they are more often then not automatic outs anyway. Plus, are the NL pitchers really that nasty with the bat in their hands?

- "Interleague matchups count in the standings, which is bad for baseball when the Yankees get to play the Mets as a natural rival, while the Red Sox have to play the Braves." Bullshit. This is the lamest reason of all. Baseball is full of stretches like this where the top teams in the division go against very different levels of competition during the same stretch. What about when the Twins are playing the Royals and the Indians while the White Sox are playing the A's and the Angels? Same thing in my opinion. Besides baseball is a game of hot streaks. Aside from the Expos, any team could win on any given night. Teams can go on hot streaks which have no correlation between their respective place in the standings, which basically renders that arguement moot. Example: The Red Sox should have tore the Rockies up and at least kept pace with the Yankees. They are 5.5 back today because they have been playing bad, not because the Yankees had to play the "less tough" team.

While all of those excuses have varying degrees of validaty, my reasons are purely selfish. The Red Sox always eat it during interleague play and it always hurts them. Every year you can basically pencil the two interleague stretches on the Red Sox calendar as trouble. They come into interleague play with a bit of momentum, only run in to the buzzsaw that is playing NL teams, and end up losing a good chunk of ground in the division. I'm not basing this on stats obviously, (and I'm sure there is something somewhere that will prove me wrong) but based on my pure speculation, interleague play ends up hurting the Sox every year. That's why I hate it.

I am pumped to see Pedro pitch to Bonds however.

Rocky Mountain Low

2004-06-17T08:45:00.000-05:00

My apologies for the title - it reminds me of something that the Herald would print on the back page in 48 point block print. But, I couldn't think of anything that better fit my feelings about the series with the Rockies thus far. This stat says it all: the Sox, as a team, have struck out 485 times in 64 games. At this pace, they'll strike out 1228 times. Note, last year they struck out 943 times. Yes math whizs, thats right, the Sox strike out almost 7.5 times per game. That implies that on any given night, if you looked at the box score, you would expect to see that the Sox faced one of these pitchers: Zito (7.7 K/9), Freddy Garcia (7.24 K/9), Johan Santana (8.39 K/9), Brad Penny (7.74 K/9), or Roy Oswalt (7.40 K/9). The list goes on and on. See it here.

The reality, of course, is that the Sox don't face those guys every game. In fact, they face substantially worse pitchers on average. Unfortunately, I haven't found a statistic on BP
that shows the average quality of pitcher each team has faced. I generally cringe at the sight of articles on ESPN.com espousing the profound impact of productive outs, but it appears to me that there must be some equilibrium between the "take and rake" approach and the "put it in play" approach which maximizes runs scored. Sox batters seem to be swinging for the fences regardless of the count, rather than protecting the plate when they fall behind the pitcher. Maybe its just heat of the moment frustration, but wouldn't the team be better served by putting the ball in play and letting the other team's defense make a play when runners are on base? I'm not advocating a BS small ball strategy, but rather, just an awareness of the count and a general strategy of making the opposition execute in the field rather than look for the long ball every at-bat.

welcome back, please take a pitch

2004-06-13T20:59:00.000-05:00

Its great to have Nomar back. Swinging at the first pitch everytime he's up, trying to pull every pitch off the wall, hitting popups to shallow center, and slapping dribblers that almost make it to the infield dirt. Exciting stuff.

Check your injury pool.

2004-06-10T08:47:00.000-05:00

Last night the Yankees got a little bit closer to making my prediction come true. I like that, not because it makes the Yankees better but because more than anything I really, really like being right. Kevin Brown's back flaring up is not exactly helpful to an already beat up Yankees rotation. I think the Garcia to the Yankees rumors are about gain some steam. Bavasi can say all he wants that he wants to wait a couple of weeks on Garcia, but I don't see how he can. They are now the worst team in the AL. They are not going to turn anything around. I bet the Yankees are going to come on pretty strong especially if they think Brown's back is more than a bad night's sleep.

By the way, how did the Mariners *not* build on that amazing 2001 season? They win 116 games, make barely any roster changes, their already old players continue to age and then 3 seasons later, they fold like rented chairs. It's like someone told them that winning that many games in a season was just like winning the World Series. I hope Balfour sent them some rings for that.

A quick note on Kahlil Greene: Dude, cut your hair. You look like a girl playing little league. Also, get a uniform that fits, because it's not exactly helping the whole tomboy thing you got going right now. I don't care if you are a rapper.

Trade bait.

2004-06-09T13:39:00.000-05:00

I like this trade thing, even though it's not really offically a "thing" until this post is published.

Derek's trade makes perfect sense to me, and honestly I think it's the most likely deal to happen. What the Yankees and Sox could offer is a lot less attractive to me if I'm the Royals that what the A's could offer. Byrnes fills the CF hole, Joe Blanton/Rich Harden gives them a quality starter, the other player included is just gravy in my opinion.

Now to make it a thing, I present the second player in the series of "Trade Bait":

Pitcher Freddie Garcia

Let's face the facts, the Mariners are not so good. Surprising considering most of their players get an AARP discount on their early bird special pre-game meals. Let's look at the facts here: Seattle is 11 games back. Now, it would be one thing is this was the AL central, but it's a whole other ball of wax when you consider that the team directly ahead of them, Texas, is only 1 game back of the co-leaders, Oakland and Anaheim. Anaheim is a force. In my opinion, there's no way they don't win the West. Then you have Oakland who we all know will be there in the end. Texas I think will falter a bit, but not enough to let Seattle back into the Wild Card race, essentially what they are playing for from here on out. To add to Mariners fans misery, the team is playing like shit. The time has come for Seattle to cut their loses and start looking to the future. Aside from Bret Boone going to a contender for the stretch run, their only real attractive trade chip is Garcia. Now, Garcia has had his issues the past few seasons, and has arguably been a rollercoaster this season, but in the right environment he should flourish. Plus, the dude's only 27. In an era where you regularly see pitchers get their poop in a group at 30, he's got a lot going for him as far as upside. This season he's 3-4 with a 3.18 ERA. I don't understand VORP or other such fancy numbers, so we'll stick with the basics and Mariners' game logs. Two of his losses have been by one and two runs, one was a complete blow-out where he let up 7 runs, and one loss was a 3-0 shut out by Texas. Aside from the 7 run debacle, he's been solid, keeping teams in games and winning the close ones at times. All of his wins have been in games that were decided by either one or two runs. A couple of runs creaking across home by the Mariners' offense, Garcia is 5-2, with a very reasonable ERA. In summary: I think he's been pretty decent this season.

The rumored teams: Pretty much any contender. The Red Sox however, have had the biggest bullshit rumor thus far. Apparently a beat writer heard Sully running his mouth a bit at the pub. A deal that basically boiled down to Kim and Damon for Garcia. First off, the Mariners need to shed salary. Taking on a different type of headcase that gets 5 mil each of the next two seasons is just silly. Throw in an overpaid leadoff man and it's even more rediculous. (Note: Overpayment based on actual baseball production, not style or ability to drink mass amounts of booze and spout off wild quotes. In that sense he is vastly underpaid.) I'm almost positive there was something else involved in this deal, but those basics make it rediculous enough. Although this is the Mariners. You must always remember the Mariners motto: "We'll do any move that makes us not better."

This is a tough one to call. I'm not too sure how many of the Sox top prospects they'd be willing to give up on another pitcher with the headcase tag. The Yankees as always are in there, especially with the money that can be thrown around. I have a feeling that this past weekend's draft will come in to play with any trade for Garcia, as the Mariners are aging very poorly and they need to kick start the youth movement. Perfect example of thier age, via my friend Julian: "Wow, I had no idea Randy Winn was old. I thought he was some young breakout player." Now you see why they traded him for Lou Pinella (I guess.)

My take: Wide open. This seems to me that this is a move that the Yankees make happen, if only because I think the Sox will be content on trying to straighten out Lowe/BK Arroyo. The Yankees have got to be tired of giving Contreas chances and they should be al least a little concerned with Lieber as well. Plus, the other big Yankees pitching target, Kris Benson, sucks big time. I'm not sure any of the other buyers in this market have enough balls/players to take the risk, albeit the small one, on Garcia like the Yankees can. On the other hand, the Red Sox could package together Kevin Millar, "Minor League Pitching Coach" Frank Castillo, and a Ted Williams game jersey and the Mariners could bite. Hey, that jersey could pull in as much as $70,000 on eBay, which is about what Ichiro is getting paid per single. (Not based on actual facts.)

Speaking of Millar, there is nothing worse than his KFC commercial. His annoying voiceover of "Millar steps to the plate" (and other such baseball quotes) while devoring a bucket of chicken is nothing less than nauseating. Then his dumb striped shirt wearing ass mugging for the camera at the end. Hey Kevin, do us a favor and stop pounding buckets of chicken. Maybe then when your fat ass tries, for whatever reason, to stretch a routine single into a double you won't get thrown out by 88 feet. Oh, and also shut the fuck up. Your smile at the end of that commerical makes me want to punch my tv out the window.

Nice pick on Pokey's throw last night though.

and now for some baseball and blog related comments

2004-06-09T13:08:00.000-05:00

-I'm digging the new format. Looks good. It would be better if the width of the blog window were bigger. Anyone know how to do that?

-Derek made an excellent call on the A's trading for Beltran. It fits perfectly into Beane's late season acquisition profile. Trade prospects from surplus, get back killer player as a rental, go for playoff run, cash in for draft picks, repeat. Unfortunately the part I left out is losing in the first round, but I'm of the school of thought that says 5 game series between quality teams are a lot about luck and timing.

-Wow Nick, your blogging is getting more and more baseball-related and less and less Red Sox and humorously not making sense-related. That said, Jack Wilson in the All Star game seems like a bad idea of Hillenbrand sized proportions.

-It's cool that the only fantasy teams worse than mine are blogging here.

-I have a serious man-crush on Beltran. He's one guy I wouldn't mind seeing the Yankees overpay for.

-Is there a way to do bullet points in the blog? What about html?

OMGWTFLFOL Colin, where have you been?!!@!@??!#

2004-06-09T12:47:00.000-05:00

In my absence I've imagined that our imaginary readers have missed me greatly and are lying awake wondering why I haven't blogged. The answer is both long and short, complex and simple, and to paraphrase the great Nigel Tufnel, straddling the fine line between clever and stupid. Out of the vast realm of potential explanations, I'll offer up a few from which to chose:

a) My fantasy teams are pretty fucking terrible
b) I've renewed my dedication to my work and don't have time for this (hint: don't chose this one)
c) I rediscovered my love for all things guitar
d) I let my Extra Innings package run out
e) I've been spending my idle internet time on theshizz.org
f) Following shitty fantasy teams is a total bummer
g) I've been overcome with grief at the untimely demise of Doug Pappas
h) I can only handle one obsession at a time and music just re-bumped baseball
i) Since I haven't been following closely, my "insights" aren't all that valuable

Ok, that's enough. All of these are true to varying degrees. Therefore, until further notice, I hereby pass my half torch of "Two People Who Know It All" to Nick. I will assume the role of reader and occasional wise-cracker.

Trade speculation

2004-06-09T08:53:00.000-05:00

I promised some sort of "analysis" about batters and what kind of performance we might expect for the rest of the season, but I'm gonna skip that because I'm a terrible evaluator of hitters (my fantasy teams can attest to that). Instead, I'm gonna speculate on the big trade that might go down before the trade deadline in July.

Carlos Beltran
The question is not if Beltran will be traded, but rather when. The Royals are already nearly 10 games out of first in the AL Central, and have little hope of climbing back into the race due to a woeful pitching staff. GM Allard Baird is said to be looking for major league ready players at 3B, catcher, and pitcher. So which teams should we be expecting to be involved in the sweepstakes?

The simplest answer is big market contenders - the underlying assumption being that because Beltran will be a free agent at the end of the season, teams will be unwilling to give up top-shelf prospects unless they have a shot at signing him to contract extension (note: Beltran is a Boras client) and they believe Beltran could be the guy to get them to a championship. That said, the list of interested parties currently goes something like: Red Sox, Yankees, Mets, Angels, Padres.

Red Sox could conceivably package Youkilis, Shoppach, and a minor league pitcher to acquire Beltran, but then would need to make another move to free up CF for Beltran. I suppose KC might take Damon if the Sox were to eat some of his contract for next year, as DeJesus didn't show he was ready earlier this season. As a Sox fan, I'm torn about that deal - I'd do it if they negotiated a deal with Beltran for the next 3 or 4 years before the trade was consummated. Not sure if I'd be down with losing those three prospects for just 3 months of Carlosy goodness; the Sox system is thin as it is.

Yankees are a bit scant on prospects, though I'm guessing they could package Navarro (c), Duncan (A ball 3B), and Contreras (headcase), absorbing most of Contreras's salary, to get Beltran. Maybe it wouldn't even require that? Maybe just Navarro and a free Contreras? Who knows. One of the cardinal rules of the trade deadline is that you can never underestimate what the Yankees might do. The deal would create a logjam in the outfield, but I'm sure Cashman would find someone to take a guy like Lofton.

The Mets have a bad habit of pretending they're a contender when they'd be better served to sell off their parts and acquire some good young talent to build around. This year seems no different, as they sit 3 games out of first and are contemplating a run at Beltran (despite having the best defensive centerfielder in the game signed to a long term deal). They have a great 3B prospect (Wright) and some promising young arms (Kazmir, Heilman) in their system, but management has already labelled these guys "untouchable". This seems like the most unlikely of trade partners for KC.

Angels, powered by Arte Moreno's monopoly money, have a lust for all things expensive and talented. Their outfield is about as stacked as one could be already, and I'm not sure how they'd fit Beltran into the equation. Once Garrett Anderson returns from the DL, the outfield from left to right consists of Jose Guillen - GAnderson - Vlad Guerrero. However, should they want to pursue Beltran, they have the prospects to do so. Dallas McPherson (3B) and Jeff Mathis have torn up every level they've played at, and there are a bevy of young quality arms at all levels of the farm system (eg, Bobby Jenks, Ervin Santana).

Finally, we get to the Padres - the dark horse. They are tied for first in a weak division, where a player like Beltran could single-handedly shift the balance of power for a team. They are playing in a new park, and have shown a bit more willingness to spend some cash this year in an effort to get people out to the new ballpark. And, they have young talent which the Royals could use. Rumors have a trade of Beltran being built around major league third baseman Sean Burroughs. Seems fairly plausible to me - Maybe a swap of Randa+Beltran for Burroughs+young pitcher+some salary dump?

So who do I think Beltran is headed for? Drum roll........none of the above. I'm going with the Oakland A's. Not one paper or ESPN article I've read has mentioned them, but the match seems perfect to me:
1) The A's have farm system depth which matches up with the Royals. Mark Teahen, a 3B drafted in the "Moneyball" draft tore up AA, and was just promoted to AAA. With the position being blocked for years by Chavez, he seems expendable to me. They've also got Joe Blanton in AAA waiting to make his move to the majors. The A's could offer either him or Harden. These guys would both be perfect the Royals.
2) The A's need to upgrade their center fielder. Byrnes and Kotsay have been tolerable, but just barely, both offensively and defensively. Beltran is a huge improvement in both respects. Chavez-Beltran-Dye in the middle of that order? Nasty.
3) Billy Beane has never backed off of trading for potential free agents, and then letting them walk and taking the draft picks as compensation. In a division as tight as the west, Beltran could be the difference. So you acquire him with a couple prospects, play out the string, offer him arbitration, watch him sign a huge deal in the offseason with someone else, take the two picks (from Beltran being a Class A eligible player) as compensation, and use the picks to replenish your farm system.

So thats my call: Beltran to the A's for Blanton, Teahen, and Eric Byrnes.

We are family, all of my millions and me.

2004-06-09T08:40:00.000-05:00

"Scott Boras indicated to the Padres that money is the most important thing to the Florida State infielder, not the opportunity to play in a good organization in a great city for a kid who doesn't like big cities with a potential opportunity to play second base aside Khalil Greene."

That's from a June 7th Gammons article. Good to see the asshole doesn't fall far from the tree. Basically, signing Boras as your agent is like erecting a huge neon sign that says "$$$" over your head, although I thought it was more Boras' rep. I had no idea he comes in with a boom box singing Biggie Smalls contractual karoke, "Gimme the loot, gimme the loot." I got to give him props for not beating around the bush (I guess.) Gammons goes on to make a good point (WHAT!?!?) about Boras' handling of players. Boras' technique of having players sit out for money usually ends up hurting them in the long run, and I think I agree. Boras had J.D. Drew sit out after being drafted by the Phillies. He gets a late start to his career, already has the stigma of being an ass around his neck, and now as he's in the middle of his best year yet *and* he's a free agent. Is there even a shadow of a doubt that some team will overpay for J.D. this offseason? It's a damn safe bet and I'm willing to take any action on it. My bet: the Mariners. Hell, if they overpaid for Big Head Todd Ibanez, I'm sure they are willing to not get better with J.D. Drew. Baseball is not a land of common sense when it comes to contracts. Drew is a frustrating case because you can see that he has talent, but his injury thing is has cost him a lot. At this point, he's a rich man's Trot Nixon.

Gammons also points out that Jason Varitek lost 2-3 years of service time by not signing with the Twins, which is effecting him money wise now at 32. While I see his point, I have to argue that if Varitek had 2-3 more seasons on him, there's a chance he wouldn't be the Varitek we're seeing right now.

My prediction for Stephen Drew: Having Boras as an agent was a factor in him falling to the 15th spot. Now there he is at 15, where the money is usually less because the Diamondbacks can argue that Drew shouldn't be making more than the 14 players picked before him. (I am ignorant on the baseball draft, I fully admit, so if this isn't the case consider my point moot.) So if Boras has openly said it's all about the money for little Stephen Drew, what are the chances he sits out and re-enters the draft next year looking for number one overall money?

In more better news: Pedro...OUCH! He had the stare, he had the stuff, he had the results. That's what me and my 5 year old Pedro shirt are looking for. Nasty, nasty outing last night. I encourage more side sessions for you my friend.

Roger Cedeno freaks out, breaks his bat at home plate and then spits on the ump. Good work. If there's anything the league needs, it's more Milton Bradleys, that's for sure. No seriously.

Fun fact: If you look up an player on ESPN, you get a pronunciation of their last name. The gold standard: Albert POO-holes.

National League - Late breaking news!

2004-06-08T08:01:00.000-05:00

Okay, yeah, couple days after when I said I would give my run-down of National League All-stars, but whatever. Unfortunately I have to work sometimes and the weekend is *my time* you fuckers. Anyways, on with my national league breakdown, via the New York Mets website. Headline on the top of the Mets page: "Catch the Energy!" Since when are the Mets electric? Unless I missed the announcement that they are going to wrap the entire starting line-up in copper wire and make them play with lightning rods strapped to their heads. Who knows. On with the wild speculation!

Catcher:

1. Mike Piazza
2. Brad Ausmus
3. Paul LoDuca

I would vote for Piazza for two reasons: 1. He (selfishly) continued to play catcher just to break Fisk's mark for HR by a catcher. Nevermind that he's a defensive liability, setting a record is important. I guess. Unless it was a record held by Jose Mesa, but that's a story for another time. Reason number 2: Having him catch Clemens. Do you think Roger will call for a pitch low and outside, then just whip a 95-mph fastball into his face? I hope so. Wait a minute, Brad Ausmus? Is this Brad Ausmus Jr., or is it still the one that is the batting wiz with singles power? Well he's not quite *that* bad, but Brad Ausmus shouldn't start an All-Star game. Ever. My vote: Johnny Estrada, just because I don't really like Piazza. Plus he and J.D. "Don't sign me ever because I trip over everything and get hurt a lot, like seriously a ton" Drew have been carrying the Braves this year. Did I mention I don't like Piazza?

First base

1. Albert Pujols
2. Jeff Bagwell
3. Derrek Lee

First base in the NL is one of the more clear cut choices this year. You have the current wonderboy of the league in Pujols, who I think is one of the players that we'll be saying "I remember when he came up and totally owned ther league" decades from now. He's got the name recognition and the stats to back it up, although Sean Casey has arguably playing better this season. My pick: Albert, just because I want one of these picks to be right.

Second base

1. Jeff Kent
2. Marcus Giles
3. Luis Castillo
4. Mark Grudzielanek

I throw in number 4 just for fun, because I think it's funny to see Mark Grudzielanek's name on there. Well actually now that I check his stats, he should be number 1!!! Hitting .467, a .529 OBP, and a .996 OPS. Insane! The 50% BB to K ratio is something to keep an eye on though. Oh sorry Cubs fans! I know his numbers are like, totally rad, but that's because he's only played in 4 games. Sorry, nice try. Vote for Ryne Sandberg if you want a Cub at secondbase you morons. My pick: Jeff Kent. Good work Astros fans, you got one right, if only by default!

Shortstop

1. Edgar Renteria
2. Adam Everett
3. Kaz Matsui

Edgar is a really weird name. It's one of those ones that sneaks up on you and when you actually take a look at it, you kind of have to wonder how they came up with that name. It just looks weird. That said, Ezzo is having a bit of an off year, given his past two seasons. Adam Everett has no business being in second, unless Jeff Kent got injured and he had to be moved over a position, and we're not talking about the All-Star lineup. Kaz Matsui has been underwhelming in my opinon. I didn't even make the easy gay porn joke. (Note: I know it's not him.) My pick: Jack Wilson. Hands down he has been the best at his position so far this season. Unfortunately he plays in Pittsburgh, where most fans who recognize him are too drunk and ornery to figure out how to punch a card correctly.

Third base.

1. Scott Rolen
2. Aramis Rameriez
3. Mike Lowell

Scott Rolen. No more needs to be said other than he is masculine as fuck. (Note: I got tired of seeing the work "beast" used when describing a player. I have proposed the use of 'masculine' to describe good play, and 'feminine' to describe poor. i.e. the sentence above about Scott. Morgan Ensberg's stats are so feminine, his Slugging % should be wearing a dress and pumps.)

Outfield:

1. Barry Bonds
2. Sammy Sosa
3. Ken Griffey Jr.
4. Lance Berkman
5. Craig Biggio

Okay, Barry shouldn't even have to be voted for. SF Outfielder should just be automatically in there, and voters should just have to pick 2 more. Nothing more needs to be said about Barry. Saying that Barry is masculine is an understatement. Scott Rolen would be Barry's date to the All-Star game, and trust me, Rolen ain't wearing the tux. Sosa gets voted in every year regardless. He could hit .100 with a single home run and he'd still be hauling ass out to right in the middle of July. I would like to see Griffey make it, if only because the Home Run hitting contest would be the perfect time for his griffystring to pop. Craig Biggio? What? 5th? Granted, he's doing pretty well, but it's just weird to see his name there, especially after Berkman. Hey, I've got an idea, let's make an All-Star team out of both leagues and they could play the Astros, a la the Globetrotters and Generals. That way the people of Houston win because they get to see all their favorite scubs and we all will win because we get to see them get completely pummeled beyond recognition. My votes: 1. SF Outfielder 2. Lance Berkman 3. Moises Alou. Yeah, I voted for Estrada and said that he and JD Drew have been carrying the Braves this year. Too bad for the Eric Lindros of the MLB, but there's no way in hell I'm voting his ass to anything other than the All Team Cancer Squad. By the way, catch the annoucement of that team on July 12th, live at the Denny's parking lot that's two blocks down from Minute Maid park. The All Team Cancer squad is brought to you by Duracell.

Comments

2004-06-07T21:07:00.000-05:00

I've enabled comments - now people can just harass those who dare to blog. To do this, I had to change the template. Weigh in.

Lets consider this a test. Comment it up.

My comments for tonight: if Tampa Bay wins the cup, I will be quite sad.

Pitchers, vis a vis belly itchers

2004-06-05T23:14:00.000-05:00

As of today (June 5), teams have played just over 30% of their schedule; full-time positional players have accumulated ~200 plate appearances, your average starting pitcher has racked up ~75 IP, and the “go-to” relief pitchers have accumulated anywhere from 20-35 IP. None of these totals strike me as being large enough upon which to base an intelligent opinion regarding performances for the remainder of the year. So, I’m going to play Trelawney and attempt to predict which of the top 25 players by VORP we should expect to stay at their current level, which might improve, and which we might expect to tail off. Today, we’ll look at the pitchers.

The top 25 pitchers by VORP can be found here. In my mind, the biggest story is the top 5: three guys who are all 38 or older (Schilling, Glavine, and Clemens), and two guys in their mid-twenties who have been pitching as well as they have at any point in their career to this point (Mark Mulder and Brad Penny). The rest of the group is dotted with familiar names (Randy Johnson, Russ Ortiz, Jason Schmidt, Roy Halladay) and names that have long been touted as Cy Next (CC Sabathia, Matt Clement,

Glavine’s presence in this group surprised me. He’s striking out just 4.5 per nine and walking 2.2 per nine, neither of which are great; however, he’s giving up just .6 HR per nine, and his BABIP (batting average on balls in play) is an incredibly low .202. That last number jumped out at me – I couldn’t find the same number for last season, but my guess is that Glavine has gotten a huge boost from having Cameron roaming centerfield for him. His peripheral stats aren’t out of line with those from the better years of his career, so I’m guessing he should continue to put up strong numbers (pitching half his games in Shea shouldn’t hurt either).

Clemens and Schilling are doing what they typically do: strike out tons of guys, and not give away too many free passes. A troubling Schilling stat: .312 BABIP. Given that the Sox still haven’t fielded their best defense, I’m counting on that going down once Trot and Nomar return.

Another name that stuck out was Cliff Lee, the 25-year-old lefty in his first full season with the Indians. Though Lee has nasty stuff (7 K/9), he’s struggled mightily with his command at times this season (4.5 BB/9); despite the control problems, his ERA has hovered around 3 through his 66 innings of work (currently 3.27). What’s really helped Lee is the fact that he’s given up just 3 home runs – a number which is quite out of line with his PECOTA projections and his track record in the minors. Though he’s appeared dominant at times this season (especially against the Sox), he’ll need to get better command to continue to put up these kind of numbers.

Carlos Zambrano, another 25 year old, couldn’t be any different from Cliff Lee in my eye. His ERA currently sits at 2.41, almost a point lower than Lee’s, and that difference is all about control - he’s striking out almost 8.5 batters/9, and walking just two. Zambrano is an extreme ground ball pitcher, so I’m a bit worried about Todd Walker’s prolonged presence at 2B behind him, but Zambrano’s stats seem to indicate he’s here to stay. Well, that is, if Dusty doesn’t destroy his arm.

Quick cuts: Brad Radke is a control freak (.7 BB/9); Pedro clocks in as the 60th best pitcher by VORP – is that worth $17.5 million? Highest K rate in the majors belongs to K-rod :14.7 K/9; CC Sabathia is sporting a 5:3 K/BB ratio – seems like hes struggling with his control a bit, his stuff is too good to be striking out just 5 guys per nine.

Finally, the worst five pitchers in the majors are: Kurt Ainsworth, Ryan Vogelsong, Scott Elarton, Brian Anderson, and everyone’s favorite free agent to be: Derek Lowe. Dlowe is walking more batters than he strikes out (4:5 K/BB), and giving up almost 2 bombs every 9 innings. Sounds like a recipe for success….for me to poop on. Next time: batters.

No word on who will win most likely to succeed.

2004-06-02T09:06:00.000-05:00

The first all-star voting update was released today. Survey says? People are idiots. Granted things will change and at this point it's based more on which teams have had longer homestands. I understand that but still, a blog subject anywhere you can find it. How about this for an idea: all the votes that morons cast at the park count towards creating a handsome year-book style package that will be available for purchase during the actual all-star game (the game that will feature all the players actually deserving to be there based on performance, that is.) For the low price of $250 (Shit, Selig's babies got to eat,) you can see just which players' names the people in the expensive seats recognize. It's a joke that the all-star game has some sembalance of importance, while being played by the winners of a popularity contest. In high school when I was selected with another kid as "best friends" were we asked to decide the outcome of the football team's playoff game? Of course not because I think our football team won 1 game in the entire four years I was there. Regardless, everyone knew that the team would have a better chance of winning by continuing to throw rocks at me than ask me to chip in on the team just because some people cast some votes for me in a completely unrelated contest. Make sense to you? Yeah, it doesn't to me either. Regardless, here is my breakdown of the voting so far, along with my choices. If this doesn't get this blog back at the forefront of useless time wasting, I don't know what will.

Amercian League:

Firstbase

1. Jason Giambi
2. Carlos Delgado
3. Kevin Millar

You have got to be shitting me. Jason and Carlos are vastly underperforming to this point, and I mean Kevin Millar? I don't even think I need to point out the idiocy in him being in the top 3. My pick: Write-in candidate David Ortiz. Yeah, he's a DH, but he does play some first. Besides, due to injury and lack of performance, who is a better choice?

Secondbase

1. Alfonzo Soriano
2. Pokey Reese
3. Bret Boone

I have no issues with Soriano being first at all, but Pokey? Hey let's give him a hand for filing in for Nomar while he's been out, *clap clap clap* great job buddy. Sorry, you're not an all-star. Gold glove? Sure. All-star, no. Keep selling those Pokey shirts Fenway. My pick: Soriano.

Thirdbase

1. A-rod
2. Bill Mueller
3. Hank Blalock

A-rod has been coming around as of late, but how about a little name that isn't even in the top 5; Melvin Mora. This dude has been flat out nasty so far, and yet he has about as much of a chance of being the third baseman in the All-Star game as Derek Lowe has of being a mildly servicable pitcher. The easy lay-up zing!! Count it! My Pick: Melvin Mora.

Shortstop

1. Nomar
2. Jeter
3. Miguel Tejada

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA! You've got to be shitting me. How about this? Michael fucking Young. Take away Jeter's recent hot streak, and he still deserves to be over Nomar. Why? A little thing called ACTUALLY TAKING THE FIELD IN 2004. Yeah, we all felt bad about the offseason Nomar thing. Send him a card, don't embarass him this way. My pick: Michael Young, then Tejada. Young is out of his tits. Why yes, I did trade him away in a fantasy league. You're correct, I *am* completely oblivious.

Catchers

1. Ivan Rodriguez
2. Jorge Posada
3. Jason Varitek
4. Javy Lopez

I put 4 here to illustrate how tough the catcher position is this year. All four of those guys deserve to be in the game based on their performance so far. My pick: I-rod, then Lopez, Varitek, and Posada all basically tied for second. It's a deep position. I will refrain from making a tired Ice Cube quote here.

Outfield

1. Vlad
2. Manny
3. Johnny Damon

Numbers one and two I got no beef with. They both have been playing really really well this season. Johnny Damon? May I introduce the winner of the most hair and still so unexplainable sexy award. Gabe Kapler should take notes: Grow a beard, spout off post-concussed tidbits, and get a free ticket to the all-star game. That's maybe a stretch, but I mean Johnny is far from the third best outfielder in the AL. Where's Catalanotto? Yeah I know he's on the DL, but that dude is the only Blue Jays player playing worth a shit this season. Plus he'll back back soon. Third OF in the AL is a tough one. My picks: Vlad, Manny, Catalanotto.

Tomorrow: The National League!!! Holy shit, can you even wait!?

Cowboy Dan's a major player in the cowboy scene.

2004-05-14T07:59:00.000-05:00

Well, shit. Looks like we're starting to see what a lineup featuring Dave McCarty, Gabe Kapler and Brian Daubach can do. When the pitching falters, Caeser Crespo can't seem to come up big in the clutch. I don't know what's wrong with him. Maybe it's because I thought he was on the Twins in Spring Training. Blame me, Caesar, blame me. The positive: a. Trot and Nomar are making progress and b. it's still May, abeit rapidly approaching June. Hopefully their return will help the Sox get back in to games when the pitching isn't totally on. However, if this is the scene in August, call in the suicide watch.

Derek Lowe. HAHAHAHAHAHA!!! Hmmm, I know I wrote a long list of reasons to send to the Red Sox as to why I think they shouldn't give in to Derek's salary demands. Where is it? Oh here it is. It says "3 out of 4 of Derek's last starts." Sorry buddy, fragile egos such as your shouldn't play hardball and try to pitch for a payday. Whatever, the horse is dead and it's starting to look a little flat.

This Bonds intentional walk debates is out of control. I wish everyone would shut the fuck up about it. Yeah it sucks he doesn't get a chance to hit, but I mean come on. Welcome to Jake Peavy's head: "Hmmm, do I pitch to Bonds or do I pitch to Yorvit Torrealba? Shit, this is a tough one. I better ask Ramon what he thinks. Oh, four fingers. Right, right. Yorvit sucks!" Don't change the rules and stop talking about changing the rules. Enough is enough. Remember how successful the Giants were with Bonds and Kent hitting back to back? I wonder why that was. Oh well, I'm sure it had nothing to do with Kent's talents. I bet it was because Barry played better when Jeff Kent would jump buses on his motorcycle before the game. Oops, I just saw that Ray Durham is back. That should help.

Jesus, Roger Clemens. Apparently staying home 6 out of 7 days of the week agree with him.

Angels put Erstad on the DL: Because the move to first was supposed to keep his Griffystrings healthy. Right. Note: Hamstrings are now forever known as Griffystrings. It just makes sense.

Ray Durham should help!!! Hahahahahahahaha! Yeah right.

Ignore the next thing if you like opinions SPORTS and not about OTHER THINGS:

Since when did the Boston Herald's front page headlines become so disgusting? At least the World Weekly News *attempts* to report objectively. The front page of the Herald is the journalistic equivalent of a "I Went All the Way to Iraq Just to Smoke a Camel" t-shirt. Bravo!

I end this on a thought about the Rockies going to a four man rotation: Good for you. I liked the humidor idea, I like this idea, and I hate that you built a park one mile about sea level. It's worth a shot. If the Rockies are ever going to have success, they definitely to need to try new things out and see if something will work. My favorite thing about the Rockies: They got Mike Hampton and everyone was all "Oh man Mike Hampton is doing terrible! Must be the high altitude." Friends, Mike Hampton could pitch on Jupiter, in a bionic robot suit, to batters without oxygen, using a rocket power ball and he would still get shellacked.

Ouch?

2004-05-01T22:04:00.000-05:00

Pedro flips out, says he will become a free agent, and then takes the mound and gets shelled. Can't say I'm not a little bit warm and fuzzy inside about that turn of events. Curly haired boyfriend will certainly have something to say on Sunday. Fin.

Damn Yankees

2004-04-27T21:10:00.000-05:00

Misleading title, sorry. It should read "Damn Macha", but that just doesn't have the same ring. And, it doesn't have that unintentional 80's hair band reference going for it either. In any case.... I'm watching the A's-Yankees matchup, and I've been left slackjawed at the A's and their bullpen (mis)usage. Bottom of the 8th, Oakland replaces Tim Hudson with Jim Mecir. Hes scheduled to face Williams, A-rod, and Giambi. Here's the game log for what ensues:

Williams singled to right.
Rodriguez singled to left, Williams to second.
Giambi walked, Williams to third, Rodriguez to second.

With Sheffield due up and slow runners on first and third, I expect Macha to call Bradford from the pen. No dice. He leaves Mecir in. Carnage ensues:

Sheffield reached on an infield single, Williams scored, Rodriguez to third, Giambi to second.
Posada singled to left center, Rodriguez scored, Giambi to third, Sheffield to second.

Now, to Mecir's credit, he didn't get hit that hard. I just have to question why Bradford, the ground-ball specialist was left on the bench. Rincon gets the call. He walks Matsui and forces in a run, whiffs the immortal and terrible Tony Clark (yes I'm still bitter about his time on the Sox), and then gives up a pinch hit double to the immortal and terrible Ruben Sierra. And now for the final insult: Macha then gives the intentional pass to Jeter. Thats right - he intentionally walked a man mired in the worst slump of his career. Who, as he walked to the plate, was 0 for his last 28 I believe. It boggles the mind.

Still, Rincon was left on the mound. He gives up another run on a fielder's choice to Williams, and finally gets the hook for Bradford, who will face A-rod. He mercifully put an end to the inning on a weak pop fly to right. Oy. Vey.

This was an almost Grady-esque case of bullpen mismanagement. Half of me expected to see Chad Fox trot out of the gates in left-center and proceed to toss sliders at everything but the strike zone for as long as anyone was willing to watch him.

Twenty games in...

2004-04-27T20:36:00.000-05:00

I apologize for my absence. No excuses. Lets get right into it.

We're almost 1/8th of the way through the 2004 season. It still seems a little bit early to start talking about which teams are good and which are terrible, but patterns have begun to emerge, and there certainly are quite a few interesting stories. I'm going to ignore the Yankees story for now - the mainstream media has covered it amply, and theres not much I can add. Instead, I'll just rattle off some of the things that have really caught my attention.

The Sox bullpen - this is a complete 180 from the performance of the Sox bullpen during April 2003. People talk about how the Yankees used to shorten games, but this group is looking just as imposing through the first month.

Francisco Rodriguez - 18ks through 10.2 innings. Anyone with Extra Innings has seen him in action. Hes filthy.

Randy Johnson - Looked every bit hittable and human until his game against the Cubs on 4/26.

The Blue Jays Offense - MIA.

The Dodgers Offense - MI....wait. They got one. The first two months of DePodesta's tenure have quite a shine to them. The team is in first, and pulling away from an incredibly weak NL West.

Barry Bonds - this guy is ridiculous. Hes struck out swinging just 5 times (I think....), and hes batting 500.

Terrible Uniforms - I liked Toronto's uniform better when it was worn by the Devil Rays. Awful.

Mariners - I wasn't a big fan of the direction that Bill Bavasi took the club in his first offseason as GM, but even my most pessimistic appraisals of his performance wouldn't have thought the M's would be 6-12 through 18 games. I guess thats what happens when two of your three starters in the outfield are Randy Winn and Raul Ibanez, and you play your first 18 games primarily against the AL Mashers division.

The Big Three of the A's - Joe Sheehan of BP commented in his Prospectus Today column on 4/27 about the fact that the A's pitchers are striking out fewer batters and relying more and more on the defense behind them. He's gone on record to state that he believes the A's should trade Barry Zito. I'm gonna throw out my prediction of the year: Zito will be a Yankee before the trade deadline. I have no idea who the principals will be in the trade, but its just a gut feeling.

Uh...thats all I've got right now. More as it becomes available.

Cowboy Down, bitch.

2004-04-23T07:44:00.000-05:00

But what accounts for this newfound willingness to reach out more publicly, to become Manny Ramirez, media go-to guy?

"You're welcome," Kevin Millar said to an inquisitor posing that very question.

It was Millar's way of saying he has encouraged Ramirez to step out.

This is a quick one because I do have to work today, but Millar needs to shut the hell up. I've grown very tired of his Dr. Intangibles act, especially considering that he seems to still be in his second half slump. If you want me to deal with your crap, hit like you did in the first half of last year. Hell, hit like you did your last season with the Marlins. Gah, I wish I didn't have that damn Millar shirt.

SFFCI

2004-04-21T15:52:00.000-05:00

Apparently the fan cost index has been released for this year, and Pappas has written a story on it. For those of you too lazy to read it, the highlights:

the FCI "tracks the cost of attendance for a family of four." This year, TMR says this hypothetical family's day at the ballpark would cost an average of $155.52. The price would range from $108.83 in Montreal to $263.09 in Boston.

TMR defines the FCI to include two average-priced adult tickets and two average-priced children's tickets--but also two small draft beers, four small soft drinks, four regular hot dogs, two programs, two of the least expensive adult-sized adjustable caps, and parking for one car.

Pappas then goes on to discuss the flaws of the system and takes some alternate approaches. For your reading pleasure, here's my SFFCI (Super Fan Fenway Cost Index):

*1 outfield grandstand ticket, $25. I'd prefer to use bleachers, but since I couldn't get decent bleacher to more than a couple of games this year, I'm going with the most typical game for me. Service charges are excluded since I split up season tickets, but these can run pretty high (about $6 or so per ticket).
*2 pre-game beers at Copperfields, $10.
*1 pre-game sausage from the Sausage Guy, $5. After a relatively amusing trek up and down and back up Landsdowne, Derek and I were able to snag genuine Sausage Guy frequent buyer cards that had been ignorantly tossed on the sidewalk. That knocks the knockwurst down to $4 a pop, quite the deal when you consider that I'll probably eat close to 30 of them this season (current count 4).
*6 beers, $36. This is plus or minus 2, but I feel like 6 is probably average. I'm factoring in the new and improved $5.50 per beer Fenway price, and a $1 tip for each of the 3 trips to the beer line. They claim the beers are 18 oz this year. That doesn't seem to change my per game count. Sidenote: there is an opportunity cost here from missing the inevitable inning or so standing in the beer line. This has been left out of the calculations.
*Fenway Frank $4. This could just as easily be any other non-beer concession, but I decided to stick with the meat product theme. Peanuts, soft serve, cracker jacks, etc. All that shit just looks and smells damn tasty when you're at the park (and rapidly getting more wasted).
*Post-game sausage from the Sausage Guy, $5. See above. So good.
*Post-game bar cover, drinks, etc, N/A. I decided to leave this out of the calculation since it varies so much and doesn't happen every game.
*Post-game taxi, $10. I'm thinking $20 fare split 2 ways. Who wants to pack on to the T like cattle after drinking 6-10 beers and eating all that pork? Certainly not I.

Total SFFCI for 2004 is $95 per person per game. Ouch. Counting the games I've already been to, I have tickets for 17 games this year. I will now debate on my own time the wisdom of spending $1,615 on my own brand of "Fenway magic" this season. Play ball.

The 889, the weekend, the condolences.

2004-04-20T09:03:00.000-05:00

First off I would like to offer my deepest sympathes to Colin's teams. 1 win is not good, especially when some of those losses mean that your hockey team gets eliminated. The bright side of all this is that while the Red Sox did go 3-1 against the Yankees this weekend, it's only April. The only thing I take from this weekend is that I know that once the Yankees start playing like they are going to and once the Sox get back to full strength, look the fuck out.

To all the people that predicted that the Orioles or the Jays might sneak in ahead of the Sox or Yankees, I think that you are sorely mistaken. If April is any indication, the AL East title goes through either Boston or New York this season. Hell, I might even throw in the Wild Card in there as well. To look at it objectively (i.e. not waving a fake Jeter head from a pike), the Yankees troubles should pretty much right themselves in time. This team has too many proven stars to fail. (The thinking that they might fail just for that reason is a whole other, non-fact based article) Regardless, Mike Mussina will not pitch this way for an entire season. While I think Javier Vazquez will not put up as good numbers as everyone is expecting, he's still better than he was against the Sox. A-rod is A-rod. Once he settles down and gets over his starry-eyes period, he should start putting up the numbers we've come to expect from him. Kevin Brown can still choke on a rage fueled dick and die, but I'll admit he's a good pitcher. The Yankees won't stay mediocre for long, so the Red Sox fans better enjoy it while it lasts. It ain't going to be *that* easy this season.

To toot a little Red Sox horn for a second, I'm really pleased with the results of this weekend. I mean honestly, with Nomar, Trot and Kim out, no one could have predicted this first series would have come out the way it did. Coming out 3-1 against the premiere team in your league (albeit in April) with out your starting shortstop, right fielder, and fifth starter is pretty good. Note to the Sox management: Do not let Derek Lowe pitch on 10 days rest again. Ever. Never ever ever. Also, I'm a bit concerned that I've seen Keith Foulke in 8 out of 12 games already. I know the guy is durable, but come on, this isn't the 1930's. "I saw Keith Foulke start game one of a double header and close out the second, on his way to appearing in over 140 games this season. He also threw batting practice on his off days." It's a marathon not a sprint. Hopefully when Kim comes back they move Bronson to the bullpen. That should shore the pen up a bit and help make sure that I don't have to see Keith's radius and ulna fly out of his fingers on a pitch in October.

Bets part of the weekend: OMGWTF, Frank Castillo is warming up! It's so comforting to see him back with the Sox! Hahahahaha, just kidding. Fuck that douche bag.

Yes, I came up short on the 9-9-9. The reason: I sprinted. It was like I was 4 miles in to the Boston Marathon and I started running as fast as I could to the 3/4 mark. That's not a recipe for success. Death. Also, yes I *heart* PBR. In fact I would drink PBR over most beers out there due to a. it's price and b. it's delicious taste. Keep your $13.00 12 packs of Sam Adams. I'll spend $2 more and get a 30-pack of delicious PBR. Oh, and all you motherfuckers who claim that PBR was the hipster beer of choice last year can screw. Back when I first turned 21 I enjoyed 1.75 bottles of PBR at the Brendan Behan pub near my old apartment. PBR for legal life.

Two things about Jason Giambi: 1. I don't care, the BALCO chant makes me chuckle. (Start it for Sheffield too, you nimrods.) 2. Read any of Ted Williams' books so you can understand how beneficial it is to learn to beat the shift. Word to the wise; just trying to crush it over the shift is probably not the best strategy.

Dude, holy shit Corey Dillon! Yeah he's a dickhead. Yeah his comments about going to the Patriots leave much to be desired. "Everyone broke even!?!" You are going to fill one of the only holes on the reigning Super Bowl champs. I would say your ass just hit the jackpot. Whatever, this guy can run and immediately improves the Pats. The best part about this deal is that the Pats gave up very little to get him. They essentially drafted an NFL proven back in the second round. Crazy. So with the RB hole filled, they can now use their two first round picks as well as their 14,000 other picks to try and patch up the rest of the roster. This deal could end up being an even better move for the Patriots than it looks like right now. Which is pretty unfathomable because right now it looks pretty fucking good.

Cetics fever! Catch it. I just found out this weekend that they made the playoffs. Good thing I don't follow basketball.

Day 2

2004-04-06T08:45:00.000-05:00

Over the course of the winter I had managed to forget the extent to which fantasy baseball drives me nuts. Yes, its only the first day of the season. What? Yeah fine - third day of the season. Whatever. The point is, I'm already scouring cbs sportsline every 5 minutes, checking on my players, complaining when they ground out weakly to second or "fly out hard" to left. I'm already tearing my hair out because Ozzie Guillen's first day with the ChiSox bullpen was like Arnold's first day teaching Kindergarten, because Jimy Williams is still trying to figure out how to put the square peg into the circle hole with his lineups, and because...well, because Matthew LeCroy can't get around on a 94mph heater right down the middle of the plate. God help me, its gonna be a long season.

Speaking of which, Dan Shaughnessy, aka the Curly Haired Boyfriend (lets all thank Carl Everett for that nickname) is already up to his usual shite (see here and here). Is it me, or does the CHB personify everything thats wrong with the Boston media? One game into the season, and hes already writing speculative stories about Pedro and his supposed attitude problems. I'm not the biggest fan in the world of Pedro as a person, but come on....this seems like a total rip job. Its pieces like this that drive the negativity and character assassination on sports talk radio, and its already worn out its welcome with this blogger.

Ouch!

2004-04-06T08:11:00.000-05:00

It was a bad time to be an opening day starter in the AL East the past week. It seems like just about every big name pitcher got knocked around in our lovable division. Notice I said big name pitcher. Sindey Ponson is merely just big and Victor Zambrano would get more press if his first name was Carlos. Mike Mussina kicked it off half a world away by getting lit up by Tampa, Pedro followed with a shaky second inning, and Halladay is lucky he's playing in Canada during hockey playoff time. Candians don't remember they have a team until the Prime Minister has returned Don Cherry to his magical starch fort for a summer of pressing shirts.

I personally watched most of the Sox opener, save for a window where I tuned in to the Sopranos. Hey, it didn't look like it was going well and besides, Celeste needs to be impressed by Steve Buchemi's grasp of massage therapy terminology. Overall, I think it was a decent game as far as Game 1 of a season goes. The Pokey play to get Mora at third was incredible. That dude ran all the way from second on that short fly, and beat Mora there. At this point, if he can make a play like that a game, I'm comfortable with his .240-.250 in the 9 spot. Plus he gets pumped up about plays like that, which is entertaining. Speaking of Melvin Mora, he always looks like he's on the verge of tears. Everytime they show him it looks like someone off camera just told him that he has a brain tumor or that his wife is homosexual or something. Funny shit. Also note: I never realized how much of a bad mouth Tejada had. The mike caught him at least once saying "Goddammit" after an at-bat and I would bet on several occasions his Darren Lewis like mutterings contained all sorts of "fucks, and shits, and cock-snot bastards." That's what you call irony, folks. When I have children, they will not be allowed to watch such an offensive man because he will kill their souls. On an slighty related note: Remember when Darren Lewis "jump kicked" (I use the term loosely) Jaret Wright? That was hilarious.

So, when did the Bruins get so good? This doesn't mean I will watch them in the playoffs or anything. I'm just saying, um, yay hockey fans!

Here's my thoughts on the Bradley deal; fantasy wise: what the fuck! I have him in one of my leagues and I feel that a move to that lineup and that park is not the best thing for a guy I had pegged to have a really great, rage-filled, tantrum of a season. I know Colin shares my sentiment, as he had to drop him in the AL only league. Reality wise: I think it's a good deal for the Dodgers, if only because Dave Roberts should not be your starting CF. Seriously, not ever. Entertainment wise: Bradley in a shit lineup, with the only other threat being Shawn "My shoulder muscle looks like a tent flap" Green, in a pitcher's park, with a pitching staff that has Nomo as a number 1 starter, is going to make for some hilarious spats. The only way this season could get more entertaining for non-Dodger fans is if they hired Larry David and that prostitute to announce all the games while high.

Why do I not feel comfortable have Justin Speir as my only closer in the Francesca league? 1. I'm not even sure that I spelled his name correctly, and I don't feel he's even worth a fact-check. 2. I drafted like I had hooves. Right, right it's all clear now.

Peter Gammons released his predicitons for the upcoming season over the weekend. This means that you should go down that list and immediately drop any player he says will have a big year because they have just received the mark of death. For someone who has such in depth knowledge and access to every team, you'd think he'd have a bit more success picking winners. Thanks for the hot tip last year on Kyle Loshe, you douche. Taking him with a high pick really came through gangbusters for me. Of course I drafted him again this year. Why? Because I don't fucking listen.

Opening Day?

2004-04-05T08:40:00.000-05:00

Well, I guess I'll take this opportunity to introduce myself and write a little about opening day. Red Sox opening day that is. Not Yankees opening day, or the rest of MLB opening day, wait, I'm confused, I'll just write about the last night's Red Sox game. So here it goes. First off, I'm pretty much just a random stranger who happens to work with Derek and watch alot of baseball. It's a pleasure to be a part of this collection of great sport minds and insightful columns.

Last night's game: alot of worries coming into last night amongst all the high expectations for this team. How would Pedro pitch? How would the Sox compensate for the losses of Nomar and Trot? But after all is said and done, I would say that yesterday's performance was relatively positive (for the most part). Pedro started out incredibly shaky. After seeing Ponson clocked at 97 (surprising everyone) and Pedro firing heat in the upper 80's, it looked as if old Pedro was gone and a new, less fearsome Pedro would be at the top of the Sox rotation. Pedro was hit hard by the bottom of the Baltimore lineup in the 2nd inning. But after getting fired up, hitting Segui and firing pitches at a couple Baltimore hitters, Pedro assumed his typical command and control and pitched well the rest of the way (up in the low 90's, a positive sign).

Other positives: Pokey played well, drawing two walks and playing stellar defense. Bellhorn's bat looked great, smacking an extra-base hit and good contact on several other at-bats. Kapler played well, with a couple hits. Manny looked his normal self, except for the fact that he ran down a short fly ball in left-center field. Everyone was surprised with that one. And I thought Williamson pitched well.

Overblown issues: (1) Timlin in the seventh. Aside from the walks, which are very un-Timlinlike and should elicit concern, Timlin was making some great pitches and just getting screwed. He pitched Tejada very well, jamming him into a little bloop single over Pokey. Then, playing that stupid shift on Palmeiro and making a great pitch down and away, can only result in a basehit in a weak groundball to short. Follow that up with the blown play in centerfield with Damon picking his ass and Kapler worried he might overrun the ball b/c he's too strong to play baseball, and Timlin just got the short end of the stick. (2) Pedro's outing: overall, Pedro pitched very well...the entire staff gave up a lot of shitty, end of the bat, soft hits. No big deal. (3) A Sox lack of hitting - the Sox got a lot of hits. Everyone looked pretty good, a nice fact considering that two of their best hitters are out all of April. No concerns here, Damon just needs to get on base.

Serious issues: (1) Millar at first. No questions, Millar is probably the worst player on the Red Sox. Going back to the 2nd half of last year, the guy does nothing at the plate. Even worse, he tries to do things in the field and fucks up. Pedro is still raring mad about the throw he made, that a good first basemen would have got. Similarly the throw Crespo made, an easy short-hop, botched by Millar. Get rid of him! (2) Strike-him-out, throw-him-out...remember the playoffs last year...enough said. (3) What's this shit about Pedro leaving early? Who does this guy think he is? He pitched a subpar game, his team lost, and he goes to pout.

What to take from all this...well, not much at all. It's game one of a 162 game season. I saw nothing here to make me think any less of this team's chances. I like how Francona is starting to sculpt his bullpen immediately (Timlin, Williamson, and Foulke) despite the negative reactions he might get to that. Remember the chaos and confusion last year. Also, I think I'll really like Pokey and Bellhorn. The two are very important over the next month and I hope they'll keep up their strong play.

Until next time.

My Sox are On (???)

2004-04-05T08:39:00.000-05:00

Red sox started out with a pretty crap showing - some poor plays in the field, Grady Little Re-Dux on the basepaths and in the dugout (strike-em out throw-em out in the first), and a pretty average Pedro showing. Silver linings - Pokey drawing two walks, Bellhorn cracking a double, Ortiz et al making Ponson throw alot of pitches. Take away a few defensive blunders and cheap hits, and the game is a respectable 3-1, pitching-dominated performance. Not bad stuff.

I've invited a new blogger, Brian Harley. Perhaps he'll grace us with his first post later today??

Lowe

2004-03-30T17:00:00.000-05:00

Instead of doing what he expects and picking apart his statistical arguements, I'm blogging to further support Nick's idea that Lowe's salary demands are not the best option for the Red Sox. This is actually something Derek and I were discussing this morning, after seeing this quote pasted from a Globe article.

"From a positive side, they've made it easy. They offered me less than what they did last year, so it wasn't a hard decision to make. It's frustrating, but then again I'm over it because they made it so easy. It wasn't like it was a decision where you had to sit down and think about it for more than a second. Now you just go out and play the game because I think if somebody wants you, they're going to put out an effort, an honest effort."

That's what they call whining folks. Is it warranted? It's hard to take a firm position without knowing how much money is being discussed, but let's try and figure out his value in today's market. As Nick pointed out, he was amazing in 2002 and pretty decent in 2001 and 2003 (strangely, these years seem to coincide with the amount of money the Sox are offering him... go figure). I like to use VORP because even though the calculation is complex, the values are simple to understand and realtively context (run support, park effects, etc) neutral. His VORP was 19, 73, and 22 in 2001, 2002, and 2003, respectively. Which one of these is not like the others? Regardless of his great performance and Tampa Bay dominance in 2002, the Red Sox will be paying his 2005+ salary for what he brings to the table in 2005+. This isn't the Diamondbacks and I don't think the Sox are really interested in further compensating him for past glories. So the question I'm trying to answer is: how much is he likely to be worth over the life of the potential contract?

PECOTA attempts to answer that question, but first I need to bust out another stat. Wins added is a measure of how many wins a player adds over a hypothetical replacement player (which, for comparison, is somewhere in the neighborhood of VORP/10). By that measure, Lowe's 2002 season was worth 7.2 wins. PECOTA produces a 5 year win forecast for all players. His 2004 contract is guaranteed, so we'll skip that one. Lowe's forecast for 2005-2008 is 1.5, 1.6, 1.0, 0.6 with ERA's fluctating around a (roughly) 4.50 average. Looking at comparable players, there's the usual bunch of nondescript guys I barely remember (Mike Lacost, Jack Billingham, Dennis Lamp) and a mixed bag of veteran pitchers who tend to rely on their defense a lot (Nagy, Hershiser, Kevin Brown 1996 vintage, Tommy John, Aaron Sele 2001). I don't see that as especially encouraging but there are some guys who aged well. All in all, this is not looking like the profile of a player you want to break the bank for. Let's compare that forecast with some other recent signings. (My appologies for the formatting. Html is a bitch):

player avg wins avg sal
Colon 2.6 12.75
Millwood 2.8 11.00
Wood 4.2 10.80
Pettitte 2.7 10.50
Halladay 4.3 10.50
Maddux 3.1 7.50
Escobar 1.9 6.25
Thompson 2.0 3.00
Suppan 1.5 3.00

Lowe 1.4 ???

That shows the average wins per season over the life of the contract next to the average salary. When I got to Suppan and got bigger number than Lowe I stopped there. No, I don't think Lowe is as mediocre as his forecast says, but topping out at about $6 million per year seems about right to me. 4+ years at 8 figures per would be a big mistake, one that some team will undoubtedly make. I'm betting Theo will take that money elsewhere.

Hush.

2004-03-30T10:42:00.000-05:00

The most tired, threadbare story (already) of the 2004 season: may I present to you the Derek Lowe contract situation. Why am a forced to listen to this everyday? Derek's "insulted" by the Sox offer and he's going to explore the free agent market (not because his agent is Scott Boras mind you) but because the Sox drove him to it.

The big stat I keep hearing is that Lowe is second only to Roy Halladay for the most wins over a two year period; (38 to 41). I think that is a bit disingenous. Granted, Lowe's 2002 was a great season by any measure. My apologies to Colin if he thinks I'm using 'pre-school stats', but 21-8, and a 2.58 ERA with the cherry on top in the form of a no-hitter (which yours truly got to see in person at Fenway. The birth of the Red Sox little league lucky shirt.) is pretty fucking good. Last year's regular season numbers, however, are a bit deceiving.

Overall, Lowe was 17-7 with a 4.47 ERA. While his win/loss record was very good, it's not a very telling sign of how Lowe actually pitched last year. Consider this: Lowe has benefited from the second highest and the highest run support (respectively) in the AL for the past two years (2002: 6.84, 2003: 7.26). So basically, with team influences staying about the same, Lowe's ERA jumped almost 2 full runs last year. Also worth noting, Derek was horrendous on the road. In 16 Road starts, he was 6-5 with a 6.11 ERA. The summation: Derek obviously had an off year. Hell, he had the skin cancer concerns as well as Todd Walker trying to catch the ball with an iron.

I think this year he's going to be nasty (mark my words Francesca league; taking Lowe win round 9 will be the steal of the season), but from a contract perspective, I understand the Sox hesitation. Which Derek Lowe will show up? Will we get 2000/2002 Derek Lowe? Or will we see the not so triumphant return of the Derek Lowe face? To put things in perspective, the Sox have a Hall of Fame pitcher who's making $17 mil and a possible Hall of Famer making $12 mil. These are guys who have had pretty stellar careers. Has Lowe truly earned the right on this team to make as much as these two? (Note: this is obviously a completely rhetorical question, given baseball's salaries. Hi Matt Morris! I see you making 12.5 this season!) Lowe has had two great seasons surrounded by a horrendous one and a medicore one. I would understand the Sox hesitation to sign him long term, coming off the year he's had and given past performance trends.

In my perfect world: Lowe sacks up and signs a two year deal with the Sox for less than he craves (say $9-10 mil., a fucking $6 million pay raise). He goes out and puts together the 2 solid seasons I think he's capable of and proves his worth. He's 32 at that point, Schilling will more than likely be retired at that point and Derek gets the pay day he feels he deserves. The Sox keep a solid pitcher in their rotation to complement Pedro's twilight years, and I can stop hearing about how under appreciated Derek Lowe feels.

In the real world: Some team lacking pitching (or the Yankees) will give Derek $14-17 mil or whatever he wants next year and he'll be gone.

Derek, I'm sorry that you don't feel appreciated. All of us are really sorry that we gave you shit for sucking so badly in 2001,(it obviously hurt you deep inside) but dude, you were fucking horrible. I mean cover-your-eyes bad. Still, I felt really bad after your no-hitter that you felt the need to rub it in our faces. You showed us the real Derek Lowe that day. The raw, insecure Derek that has turned to money as his only fans.

If it helps, you were my fucking hero in the A's series.

By the way, the Sox totally ripped the Mariners off to get you. I just like to point that out whenever possible.

AL East

2004-03-30T08:31:00.000-05:00

Ladies and gentlemen, the Tampa Bay Devil Rays are in first place.

They also gave Chuck Lamar an extension through 2006, effectively guaranteeing that they will not be in first again for a long, long time.

Trade? White Socks?

2004-03-25T13:19:00.000-05:00

FYI, that trade was one of the worst trades, ever. Pump and dump, eh Billy Beane? I could have used that information before I dealt Koch for Edgar "Give me a new hip and hammy while you're in there" Martinez. Terrible.

PS...my pale hose is currently up about 3.75, but I'm not bringing in Koch.

old school? new school? shit, I didn't go to school

2004-03-25T11:31:00.000-05:00

I'd volunteer to do Guillen, but with 4 fantasy teams to manage I just don't know where I'd find the time to report on the massive amounts of stupid things he says and/or does.

For example, let's take a quick look at how Ozzie has dealt with Billy Koch. Having had him on a fantasy team in 2002, I know first hand how kick-ass Billy was on a conventional stat basis -- racking up saves and wins at a killer pace. (side note: how did that trade work out for you Derek?) By all accounts, Koch's fastball is straight as a convention on banning gay marriage, but when he can throw it in the high 90's and maintain some semblence of control he can get good results. When he throws low 90's like he did last year and so far in ST, he's about as effective as my recent attempts to pass actuarial exams. He may be better than Matt Anderson, but not by a lot. Meanwhile Damaso Marte has racked up the strikeouts, kept his ERA way below league average, and even shown the "closer magic," logging a few saves. So of course, Ozzie names Koch his closer out of the gate.

Now here comes the really stupid part. Ozzie refuses to use Koch in any non-save situation ...in spring training. Joe Sheehan's already written some criticism about this, but it's retarded enough to go over again. As Derek so nicely pointed out, the late innings of a ST game usually produce such luminary hitters as Felix Escalona and Erick Almonte. Facing these gems in the rough, Koch has racked up a grand total of 6 IP under Ozzie's brilliant strategy. Amazingly, he hasn't given up any runs yet. So to clarify, you hold a guy back when the regulars are still in the game, or on a day where the game is a blow out, and save him to face the Brewers' B squad with the Pale Hose up by 3, in front of 1200 people who care more about hot dog toppings than the score. Then when he pitches well in a small number of games against total scrubs, you are convinced that he's the man for the job.

As bad as Gardy and Melvin are, (by the way, check out the USS Mariner link for some good Melvin quotes and subsequent bashing) I think Ozzie's gonna take the cake.

Inanity

2004-03-25T10:49:00.000-05:00

Random thoughts...

Ah...spring. Theres nothing quite like dropping a bunch of cash to head to Utah for a week of skiing in powder, only to arrive and find high pressure squatting over the entire western US. No pow pow for me....sigh. Well, at least baseball is right around the corner. I have to admit I think spring training is useless - its hard to read anything about the year a player is going to have when hes playing half-games against the Bickford's B-squad, and I can't stand wading through the thousands of "Player X has overcome so much crap in the offseason, but hes regained his stroke and is optimistic about his chances" fluff articles that the media love to run in March. Does anyone really give a shit about McCarty's two-way aspirations, or Damon's newfound love of playing Unfrozen Caveman Jesus Car Chaser But I Don't Drink on Game Nights, Honest...?

I had a hard time being even slightly interested in last nights Sox/Yankees "game". Does anyone really give a shit about the outcome of a Donovan Osborne - David McCarty matchup? I mean, other than Donovan Osborne or David McCarty? At one point I think the Yankees had Felix Escolona, Erick Almonte, and Darren Bragg on the field at the same time. Sorry, not even a chance of me popping baseball wood there. Nothing doing.

I'm gonna have a good time watching Tom Gardenhire, Bob Melvin, and Ozzie Guillen compete for the title of most stubborn old school (ie, worst) manager in the bigs. My preseason for the prediction: Melvin, by a nose. The guy wants to bat Boone 6TH in the lineup. Thats right, 6th. Gardenhire, meanwhile, always seems to do his best to misuse his best pitchers, and ensure that promising young bats who mash spend time on the bench while Mientkewicz spits out his usual above-average glove / below replacement level with the bat production. Ozzie....well, this is a guy who has already stated that Frank Thomas and Magglio Ordonez need to be ready to bunt and play small ball.

I propose the following to the authors of this blog: we each pick a manager from this trifecta, follow their progress throughout the season, and blog up anything we find particularly funny, retarded, whatever. At the end of the season, we can review all the items, and pick a winner for worst manager. I wish there was a quantitative way to do this, I'll work on that. Yeah.....

Its gonna be a fun season, folks.

AL East

2004-03-22T12:21:00.000-05:00

Team Record Runs Allowed
Yankees 109-53 969 668
Red Sox 107-55 934 662
Blue Jays 85-77 875 834
Orioles 83-79 811 790
Devil Rays 59-103 682 907

This one has already gotten kind of old, with all the exaggerations surrounding the A-Rod trade and what it meant to competitive balance, and the subsequent backlash/denial from the Nation. In the end, it's nice to see an impartial computer do the job and tell us 2 things that we already know: 1) both teams are fucking stacked, and 2) the division title is up for grabs. In any event, the system see virtually no competition for the wild card, which brings the division title payoff down to bragging rights and first round playoff opponents.

These crazy good records are of course contingent on reasonably good health for both teams. The system assumes Giambi plays in 90% of games, A-Rod in 97%, Jeter in 95%, Posada in 90%, Manny for 90%, Nomar for 88%, as well as Pedro and Kevin Brown for 185 IP, Mariano Rivera for 75. No regulars are expected to be hurt/benched more than 30% of the time. That wont happen, but it's also next to impossible to predict who will hit the wall. Odds are better that it will be a Yankee, based on age and history. Other things to consider are trades. The most obvious situation that could be improved by trade is 2B for both teams, but especially the Yankees. Anything could happen. Enter the cliche: that's why they play the games.

Moving on, it's time to pity the Blue Jays and the Orioles. The projections give them both a record that would win the Central, made more impressive by the fact that each of them plays 38 games against the Yank Sox. Park-effects be damned, I wouldn't be surprised if the Jays gave up fewer runs than the Orioles and beat that projection. PECOTA isn't overly kind to Halladay (230 IP, 3.91) and I think Ted Lilly can beat his projection (150 IP, 5.07), whereas Rodrigo Lopez would shock me if he hit his (140 IP, 4.63). In the end, it wont matter more than reminding a few more Canadians that they have a pretty good baseball team.

This just in, the Devil Rays still suck. Their projections are just ugly all around, with only 2 players (Huff and Jeremi Gonzalez) breaking a 20 VORP. Ouchies. Some interesting sizemic activity is being reported at Mt. Pinella. Perpare to evacuate.

Projected standings

2004-03-22T12:15:00.000-05:00

It's painfully obvious at this point that I'm not going to make it through my team-by-team analysis. However, BP has released some sweet new depth charts, each with an accompanying team forecast based on the PECOTA weighted means and their best guess at playing time. They factor in just about everything that you can at this point in the season, including injury risks, manager preferences, defensive subs, etc., which makes them really cool to browse around. The stuff they don't figure in are things that can't be predicted, like catastrophic injury, huge performance shifts (like half the Sox regulars last year), etc. Anyway, I pulled out that info into standings. I'll go through one division at a time and comment. Enjoy.

We rewrote the standards.

2004-03-22T10:13:00.000-05:00

Ok, so Trot is out until May and Nomar's got a walking cast on his heel. Here's hoping he didn't skimp and borrow John Valentin's just to save a few bucks. I don't need to see Nomar on NECN with frosted hair, ending his career up like Johnny V. "Hey, I hit for the cycle and had an unassisted triple play! I also hit the eventually winning home run against the Yankees a few years back in a game that Nick and his friends were at (it was the same day the Patriots were playing the Broncos on MNF) and when that home run hit the bleachers Mr. Washburn jumped up and put both middle fingers up in this Yankee fan heckler's face and screamed, 'FUCK YOU!!!!!!!!'." I think I pretty much summed up John Valentin right there. As far as scrappy mid-90's Red Sox third baseman go, I'll take Tim Naehring any day of the week and twice on Sundays. To get slightly back on track, missing Trot and Nomar for an extended period of time is definitely a blow, but I think that their pitching can do the job and compensate for the offense that will be missing. The flip side of that; I'm pretty sure the Sox are already going to experience a noticable drop-off in offense from last year. We'll have to see how this plays out.

I saw a bit of the Vet stadium implosion. It's good to have video tape proof of your revenge, especially when it's legally sanctioned by the laws of our Government. It's almost like Philly wanted me to come back and it was their gesture of goodwill. Now if they could implode the guy who called me and my friends "Fags" because we were all wearing spring jackets, maybe I'll think about it.

I'm concerned about Jayson Stark. Let's look at his last few articles: John Smoltz softball article about Smoltz being the last link to the 90's Braves. His "invited to Spring Training" article which details former big names who are now just trying to win a contract in major league camps. Skip the Sheffield article and you have one about Dave McCarty, which is one of the most patently rediculous articles I have read recently. My point? Jayson is crying for help. Who can blame him? I log in to ESPN and see his mug tacked on the end of a lineup with such luminaries as Gammons and Neyer. Here's the way I read it; The Smoltz article referrences Jayson's old tie to respectability. I know it's a stretch, but you have to figure he's done something decent to warrant getting this job. The "invited.." article is telling because again, he's referencing his lost glory days (and again, I guess he had them) and how now he's merely fighting for a spot in the bigs. The McCarty article is the most important, however, because it shows us that Jayson Stark has completely lost his mind/thinks that by having Major League wittists write dumbass 'slice of life' articles for him now makes him a "dual-threat". Jayson, buddy, grow the mustache back and be comfortable with your status in life. We all need a least favorite ESPN baseball analyst, and unfortunately Jeff Brantley has more baseball stats than you.

I think the resigning of Chavez is a pretty good deal, more so because I hope it is a sign that the A's are going to try and keep some of their talent in-house when fically possible. I'm also glad they kept Chavez instead of Tejada because Eric doesn't seem to have too much trouble with obscenity and I don't think we'll have to worry about Miggy's children in the playoffs this season.

I hate J.D. Lindros so much. It's almost irrational how much I dislike him. Attention Georgia: J.D. is no offensive savior. In the span of a season you have gone from offensive career years to career mediocrity. I feel bad for you, but unfortunately you've had a lot of chances to win more World Series. You got one, and probably should have had more, but hey, try harder next time. Anyways, get used to the feeling, because I don't think a roster that contains the name J.D. Lindros is ever going to be engraved on a trophy, unless of course there is some Worst Possible Moves (WPM) trophy that I don't know about and the Seattle Mariners suddenly fold, thereby freeing up the trophy for someone else to win. Bright Spot: I bet Johnny Estrada will do really well because I have him in two of my fantasy leagues. Then again I had Vlad last year and also made Kurt Warner my number one pick overall two years ago. Why yes, that was the year he returned to his Arena Football League form. Thanks for remembering!

So is my place on this board to write articles that ramble on about dumb crap and have very little basis in fact? Ok, that's cool with me.

Pappas

2004-03-12T14:51:00.000-05:00

After blogging this morning I decided to send an email to Doug Pappas to see if I was on track with things. He wrote me back.

If the Red Sox ever decide to build a new stadium, they'd just about
have to use seat licenses, since everyone agrees that the state and city
government wouldn't pay any of the construction costs.

On the other hand, a New Fenway probably would NOT seat 15,000 more
fans. The trend has been toward parks in the 40,000-45,000-seat range, as
teams conclude they're better off with smaller parks that are more
easily filled, encouraging fans to buy tickets sooner and putting upward
pressure on ticket prices.

Doug

Let's get financial

2004-03-12T11:29:00.000-05:00

In my daily BP reading, I came across a link to this article about how the Diamondbacks are creatively generating operating revenue while they are not eligible to increase debt (e.g. long-term contracts). It's a pretty interesting move and a commendable example of applying good business principles to the world of baseball. The other reason I'm bring it up here is this:

The team is seeking to sell 33 ownership units at $3 million a piece and about 4,000 personal seat licenses at Bank One Ballpark that are expected to cost in the range of $7,500 to $12,000, Colangelo said Thursday.

"It's the difference between renting and ownership," Colangelo said. "You'll own your seats forever. We're taking our best beach-front property and making the most of it."

Although I'm still a little confused about how this will work, it seems like an interesting concept and one whose merits should be considered in the context of Fenway Park. Since the Sox ownership has clearly demonstrated the willingness and ability to wring extra dollars out of Fenway, the question I have is would the AZ plan work for us?

Let's first compare the current season ticket structure of the two teams. After a bit of research on their website, I've discovered that the Diamondbacks have a very aggressively managed pricing system. The BOB is heavily divided into sections of varying price, as well as varying the price of weekday, weekend, and "premium" games. Their season ticket plan is simpler, and they provide a nice little chart to help potential season ticket holders understand the savings. Fenway's plan is much simpler.

So let's say you bought outfield grandstand season tickets this year at Fenway (who, me?) for $2,025. Despite the lack of large view-obstructing pillars and a presumably more comfortable experience, the comparable section at the BOB would be the bullpen section based on distance from home plate and relative location in right field. Those seats run $16 each at season ticket pricing, or $1,296 over 81 games. I'm not sure what the actual seat licensing purchase price would be, or if these seats would even be eligible, but let's just say $10,000 for this purpose. At a 6.0% discount rate, that $10,000 cash up front is roughly the equivalent of 10 years of $1,296 season ticket sales, assuming no inflation in the ticket prices. Now, that's about as likely to happen as Shea Hillenbrand breaking the single season walk record, but bear with me. This scheme seems to make a lot of sense for the Snakes in their current debt-equity situation. It should also be appealing to long-term fans who are interested in cost certainty and tangible value. Who might be interested in that? Perhaps some of Arizona's huge retiree population living off non-increasing annuity pensions (or better yet, a lump-sum 401(k) balance that they have to budget themselves) and settled in the area long-term.

Coming back to my original question - does it make sense in Boston? Probably not. The demand for tickets is so huge right now that even with 56% higher ticket costs (from the above example) than the D-Backs, Fenway is sold out for the season... in March. The coffers are already bursting with revenue from products that in some cases wont be used for 6 months. They don't need the cash and as long as they can stay competitive - and with this management that should be true - their income from these sales is virtually guaranteed into the foreseeable future. The inflation of the ticket prices over the next 10 years will probably outpace any other investment they made with the up front cash. The only thing that might make sense about it would be capitalizing on the extremely high demand right now and setting a huge purchase price. I doubt that would be worth it.

Here's another related thought. What if they used a scheme like this to provide financing for a new stadium? There may be something to that. If implemented correctly it would go a long way towards bridging the huge financing gap in any of the proposals that Harrington was working on. If Arizona can bring in $30 million off their deal, imagine what the Sox franchise could command. Ticket prices alone inflate that up to almost $50 million. Factor in demand and you could really have something. I'm sure I'm missing some complicated business issues, but the possibilities are fascinating. Well, maybe that's not quite the word most people would use...

more on the Bertuzzi hit

2004-03-12T08:55:00.000-05:00

As a follow-up to the other hockey article I pasted, I think this one by Barry Melrose, master of mullets, is also well said.

The suspension the NHL handed Vancouver's Todd Bertuzzi for his attack on Colorado's Steve Moore -- the remainder of the regular season, all of this year's playoffs and an application for reinstatement -- is the heaviest ever handed out as far as I'm concerned. Not only will it cost Bertuzzi at least 17 games, but it basically cost the Vancouver Canucks a chance at the Stanley Cup.

The physical play of Todd Bertuzzi (top) crossed the line in the Steve Moore incident.
But while removing Bertuzzi from the lineup changes everything about the Canucks, the league did the right thing in sitting him down until at least the beginning of next season. Colin Campbell and the rest of the NHL brass acted swiftly and decisively to send a message. This sets a precedent by telling players that crossing the line with their on-ice behavior is unacceptable, and it should be a good lesson for everyone.

As for what this means on the ice in Vancouver, there is no doubt the Canucks are a much different team today than yesterday. Bertuzzi is one of the 10 best players in the world, with his combination of offensive skills and physical style of play, and taking him away is taking away maybe their biggest impact player.

He plays a ton of minutes and commands attention from the opposition's No. 1 defense pairing, so without Bertuzzi on the ice that top pair can focus all of it's attention on Vancouver captain Markus Naslund and, to a lesser extent, his linemate Brendan Morrison. Both are very good players, but neither is as physical as Bertuzzi and neither has his ability to camp in front of the net and create havoc. And the loss of his scoring ability also puts more pressure on the defense and goaltender, so this is a huge loss in every way for the Canucks.

If he's smart, Vancouver coach Marc Crawford will play the "us vs. the world" card in the dressing room. He has to get his players fired up to prove something and make everyone who is saying Vancouver is finished this year eat their words. Crawford has to unite his team, and if he's smart he'll get a lot of mileage out of that card.

This situation isn't necessarily a black eye for hockey, though, because anyone who doesn't like the physical nature of the sport is going to bash it anyway. It's amazing that Major League Baseball cannot get its players to submit to drug testing and has pitchers who throw at guy's heads, yet people zero in on one unfortunate incident in hockey and point to it as an example of what's wrong with the game.

Those who know hockey understand that a line was crossed and that what Bertuzzi did is should never be part of the game. They are likely the same group that will use this as another argument for abolishing the instigator rule -- which gives an extra minor penalty to the player who starts a fight -- and letting the players police themselves by exacting retribution before situations like this arise.

Others will be calling for an end to fighting and a move to European rules, but they likely don't watch a lot of overseas hockey. If they did, they'd see that the European game is the dirtiest in the world. Players over there engage in all kinds of stickwork -- slashing, spearing, high-sticking -- and the physical play involves kicking and the like. There is no accountability or retribution, so a dirty player can run rampant all game long without having to face justice.

And the faction that says the NHL should adopt international rules forgets that the Olympics feature the eight best teams in the world, each featuring the 20 best players from their countries. The skill level across the board is totally different and the product will be better no matter what rules they play under.

Many people who don't truly understand the game are talking right now, but they are exactly the group who should not be saying anything. The NHL is dealing with one terrible incident and will survive. Let's just hope Steve Moore's career survives.

I will never talk about hockey again. I will never talk about hockey again. I will never talk about hockey again. I will never talk about hockey ag

2004-03-11T15:28:00.000-05:00

I will never talk about hockey again. I was the focus of Colin's wrath regarding the actions of that guy on the Canucks there. I fought back and forth with him a little bit then I remembered: I don't care about hockey. Not even kind of. The other day the Bruins and Predators game was just starting (Nashville having a hockey team is a whole other rant, by the way, hating hockey or not.) and I just kept right on going. I watched a special about the birth of the machine gun on the History channel instead. That’s how much I am disinterested in hockey. Colin, I may not say this often, so pay attention: You were right. I had no prior knowledge to build off of regarding hockey, it's violence, or the number of occurrences of cheap shots. (Note: that reference at the beginning of that sentence cost me over $9000. Yeah Nick, you totally want to get your Masters in elementary education. Idiot.) Which leads me to my next thing: the reason why people who don't care about hockey talk so strongly about this is because we're all tired of raving about how Pokey is hitting so well in Spring Training. I thought Mark Bellhorn was the Stick and Pokey was the Glove? How about the Northeastern kids who hit off of Schilling, and simply based on that, have achieved more in their lives than I have? See, this is why we flip out about sucker punches. Nothing. Else. Is. Happening.

EXCEPT FOR JOHNNY DAMON GETTING WASTED THAT IS! Good lord people are bugging about this. Johnny is an alcoholic! He alludes to not drinking as much as Mickey Mantle, so it's cool! Scandal! Also this is based on something he wanted to clear up regarding Grady Little and his playing time last year, i.e. Grady thought Johnny partied too much, so he benched him. Grady Little, father figure. If you had a sip of Boone's farm and looked at a Sears panty and bra circular you'd probably get benched by Grady. *making a square with my fingers* Gimme a break. He's got the whole metrosexual caveman messiah thing going. He's not supposed to go out and party? He's 30, divorced and making millions. He'd be silly *not* to go out and party. The article mentions a joke he made on Jimmy Kimmel Live about drowning a tough loss to the Angels in Jack. It's not like he said this to Tim Russett on "Meet the Press" or anything. This is a show that on one episode had Jimmy visibly wasted dumping things in to a deep fat fryer (including some guy's watch). Once again, non-story. So to summarize this year so far: Johnny is an alcoholic, Pedro was late because to be a dick, not to care for his sick kid (because we didn't know he had a kid dammit, and he would obviously tell us dammit!), Nomar's SI cover was "suspicious", a sports writer suggested that Shea Hillenbrand may have taken steroids (which honestly I wouldn't care about because he's a homophobic retard) and Schilling's teammates hate him/he threw at Kevin Millar's head in anger. God bless the Boston media/fans.

Also side note to Red Sox fans: Cut the shit with this "IT'S SO ON!" thing. It's not "ON!" by any stretch of the imagination. When Adam Hyzdu gets more starts in the outfield than Nomar gets at SS, it's not even kind of "ON"! a little bit. Oh, and do me a favor: When it actually is "ON!", I'm positive that I'll be well aware that it's "ON!" so there's really no need to tell me exactly how "
ON!" it is.

ESPN article

2004-03-11T08:08:00.000-05:00

I thought this was pretty well said:

Here come all the hockey "experts" | From David Schoenfield

I was watching SportsCenter on Tuesday night with my wife, who is a big hockey fan, when the Bertuzzi hit was shown again.

Her comment was especially revealing: "Now columnists everywhere who haven't seen a hockey game all year will be writing on this."

Hockey is a tough game. Sometimes it is a violent game. It is nowhere near as violent as boxing or football. A hard check along the boards or even a sucker punch to the back of the neck don't normally have the same potential for injury -- or death -- as a pitcher deliberately throwing a 95-mph fastball at a batter's head or race-car drivers screaming at 230 mph down the backstretch at Daytona.

Nobody gets outraged when a defensive lineman delivers a crushing to a quarterback two seconds after he has thrown the ball or when a wide receiver gets clotheslined in the head.

Marty McSorley looks down at Donald Brashear after slashing him in the face with his stick.
Yet ... columnists everywhere will be ranting and raving about this play, pounding their fists on their imaginary typewriters and acting -- like they do once a year -- that they actually know something about hockey.

As Maple Leafs coach Pat Quinn said when asked about Bertuzzi's hit, "Payback has been part of the game for 100 years." It is what it is. Steve Moore knew the game when he delivered a cheap shot to Canucks captain Markus Naslund last month. Avalanche coach Tony Granato knows the game -- he was once suspended 15 games for a stick to the face.

I'm not defending Bertuzzi's hit. It obviously crossed the line of fair play or even "payback" play and is unacceptable. If he receives a long suspension and misses the playoffs, it's a costly blow to a team with Stanley Cup hopes, and even Bertuzzi's teammates would admit that no attempt at payback makes that defensible.

But if you don't know the game, keep your ranting to something else.

I think I blogged on my shirt

2004-03-05T12:13:00.000-05:00

Here's a stateriffic equation for you:

f(Colin's pain quotient | March 5, 2004) = SqRoot(days since last time drinking) * [(total beers consumed last night)^3 + (# of Michelob Ultras at the Fleet Center) - 2*(pizza slices eaten)] * exp{1000*(number of client presentations given at 9am + boolean variable for having to wear a suit and tie)} / (total hours slept)

Oof.

Continue the love fest.

2004-03-05T09:34:00.000-05:00

Last night I went home, fully expecting to watch some Red Sox preseason baseball, i.e. check out all the players who'll be thrilling the shit out of Pawtucket in a couple of weeks. I checked NESN but it was nothing but the Mad Fisherman. By the way, if the Sox aren't on, do they just show the Mad Fisherman? This show is on *all* the time, and everytime I catch even a second of it, I want to murder. He's so annoying. He's like the guy from your office that as soon as you get in a social scene he becomes "the funniest guy ever". Fuck that guy. Besides, this guy makes Massachusetts stereotypes look like the proper english gents from Little Women. (I'm just guessing because I've never read that book because it's for chicks and I don't read books for chicks except for watching "Briget Jones Diary" once, but that doesn't count because it was a movie.) So naturally I'm an idiot and even though I have the digital cable guide I say "Well the Sox aren't on NESN so they must not be on period. I'll play Socom instead." So that's what I did. A couple of hours later I actually checked the guide and saw that the game was on 38 and it was in the 8th. Note: Earlier this week, much to my boss' dismay, I though it was perfectly sane that a plane ticket from London to Germany would cost $10,000. More on this as the post goes on.

Highlights: The Adam Hyzdu to Dave McCarty (I always want to say Walter, by the way) relay throw to get Lew "Diamond Phillips" Ford at the plate. It was a perfect relay that came straight from the "Textbook for the Totally Awesome". I actually laughed out loud when they said Hyzdu's name because a. I used him to make fun of Pittsburgh fans a couple of weeks ago, not realizing he's not on the Pirates anymore. b. He's on the Sox, which I forgot about for about 3 month, hence the faux pas. c. Everyone talked about him the year before last like he was going to break out. I figured for the longest time that he was a minor league prospect who actually had a shot to make it out of the dump that is the Pirates farm system. He's 32. Breakout? Not so much. Sit down Luis Gonzalez.

The jacked home run by Andy Dominique, which was followed by me saying "Who the hell is Andy Dominque?" I'm not up on the minor leaguers so much because I have real life things to do. Like be completely oblivious to my surroundings. So he's a catcher or something, but he's got the body type of Mo Vaughn, so I don't think we'll be seeing a SHOP-ek/Dominque tandem in the future. Whatever, he jacked the hell out of that Joe Roa offering. Speaking of Roa, he played for so many teams last year I lost track when they were announcing them. "He spent most of his time with the Padres last year.", says Sean. Stat screen: 16 games with San Diego. That's how many team Joey Roa played with last year. Somehow I don't think he's going to make the trip to Minneapolis.

Ceaser Crespo was up and I was sitting there thinking, "So that's what Ceasar Crespo looks like. Weird, I had no idea. Wow, he has no chance of making the Twins line-up this season. Their infield is pretty set. *Ceasar looking terrible at-bat* He's not going to make the team for his hitting either. *Ceasar strikes out and walks to the dugout, which is a sea of red* Oh. Ceasar plays for the Sox. Um, yeah he's got even less of a chance of making the majors now." I'm at the point right now where I'm seriously considering hiring a nurse to come take care of me and explain my surroundings to me so I don't continue this spiral of idiocy. My once cute "cloud of indifference" has turned into "flat out retardation". Seriously, it's not like the Sox were wearing their white uniforms or anything. Bright fucking red!! I suck.

The crowd shot of a guy and his wife sitting and waving to the crowd. He was wearing a Pats visor and they were waving like fools, until the gentleman had a stroke of inspiration. He jerked his thumb towards his wife, then made the throat slash motion across his throat, all the while she's waving away like a beauty queen. Best crowd shot of the year, trust me.

I really love when Sean and Jerry call games. Reminds me of my childhood.

Hebson, buddy, get some movement on those pitches. Half of those came in like they were on train track. Not good. Also, how tall are you? You look tall on tv.

Baseball is great!

good times

2004-03-04T18:04:00.000-05:00

I'm in a good mood right now and it's time to share the love. Things I'm currently happy about:

1. The Bruins management is acting like they actually want to win a cup. I'm probably feeling more shocked than happy about this right now. As a show of support I decided to purchase a ticket to tonight's game (along with fellow blogger Derek). As soon as I'm done here I'm going ot have a beer (or several) and watch the re-tooled Bruins stick it to the joke of a franchise known as the NY Rangers.

2. I listened to baseball on internet radio today. Sure it's mostly scrub players and no one's really giving 100% effort, but it's still baseball.

3. Fantasy draft prep is in full swing, thanks to the release of BP dollar values, mock drafts, draft guides, trade talks for keepers, and other stuff that I really enjoy.

4. The BP book is finally out. Peace to the Metro crossword cause my T ride entertainment just took a quantum leap forward.

Go B's!

Random Thoughts

2004-03-04T13:45:00.000-05:00

Well done, Colin, on the A's and Twins writeups. I agree with your take on both of them. I don't believe that the A's loss of Tejada will be significant at all, supposing that Dye returns to even 50% of what he used to do, and Bobby Crosby has a decent rookie year. And I think both of those things have a very good chance of happening. To me, the Twins are a huge question mark. I look at them and see a team that lost its most valuable assets (Guardado and Hawkins), and have done nothing to address the losses. I don't believe that JC Romero will be able to step up and close games, and its not clear to me that Ron Gardenhire has the intelligence to give someone like Jesse Crain the opportunity to pitch in high leverage situations. I think the way the AL Central shakes out will be a very interesting story.

So, I guess steroids are the big story these days. To be honest, I'm trying to avoid most of the stories regarding the issue. Without testimony or direct evidence that players like Giambi or Sheffield or Bonds actually CONSUMED the illegal substances, I expect to see nothing but a littany of he said/she said and legalese mumbo jumbo. I'll pass on that. The issue of steroids actually seems to be overshadowing the beginning of the spring training game schedule, and that is kind of a bummer.

The USS Mariner (click link on the right) has had some great posts lately discussing new GM Bill Bavasi.

Hockey has been big in the news lately - the Bruins made a huge splash by trading Shaon Morrisson plus first and second round picks to the Capitals for Sergei Gonchar. They then dealt a 2006 second round pick for Michael Nylander. I typically have alot of bad things to say about Boston GM Mike OConnell and the Bruins ownership, but kudos to them for making these deals. Both addressed gaping holes in the B's roster - Gonchar is a premier defenseman who can control the tempo of a game and generate scoring chances both even strength and on the power play, and Nylander is a nice playmaking, second-line center who should mesh well with Samsonov and Bergeron when both return from their injuries. The B's are a real contender now.

Oakland A's

2004-02-25T18:51:00.000-05:00

I realize I'm not off to the most promising start, at least as far finishing all the teams, but let's keep plugging. Here is installment #2, the 2004 Oakland Athletics.

Lineup

	Hitter	Pos	PA	EqAVG	EqOBP	EqSLG	VORP 04	VORP 03
1	Kielty, Bobby	LF	436	.262	.364	.456	16.7	6.9
2	Hatteberg, Scott	1B	431	.267	.360	.402	8.8	6.9
3	Kotsay, Mark	CF	486	.284	.360	.452	19.6	16.3
4	Chavez, Eric	3B	601	.289	.363	.536	50.7	55.8
5	Dye, Jermaine	RF	310	.249	.328	.425	3.8	-20.6
6	Durazo, Erubiel	DH	466	.262	.371	.480	22.6	32.2
7	Crosby, Bobby	SS	318	.262	.335	.439	18.1	-2.7
8	Ellis, Mark	2B	500	.263	.336	.395	15.4	8.6
9	Miller, Damian	C	239	.235	.313	.393	5.0	1.8
							-----	-----
	TOTAL		3787				160.7	105.2

Dayn Perry already did a great job establishing that the A's have, in typical fashion, quietly and efficiently made up for the loss of an MVP. For those of you without a BP premium subscription, or just lacking the inclination to read the article, I'll summarize how. They lost 2 key hitters in Tejada (50.4 VORP) and Hernandez (30.3). Offsetting that are the "losses" of Long (-8.5), Singleton (-2.3), and Guillen (4.5 with the A's). Filling their slots are rookie SS Crosby (18.3 projected VORP), Twins exile OF Kielty (16.7), injury plagued OF Kotsay (19.6) and fossil C Damian Miller (5.0). That only leaves about 15 runs to make up, and simply plugging in a live body for Jermaine Dye's heinous 2003 (-20.6) more than make that up. Some other minor deviations here and there and you have the basically same admittedly anemic offense as last year. However bad it was, it was enough to win them a division and come within a hair of beating the Red Sox in the ALDS. Which brings us to the strength of the team, the pitching...

Rotation

	Starter	Pos	G	GS	IP	EqERA	VORP 04	VORP 03
1	Hudson, Tim	RHP	31	31	215	3.74	45.6	69.5
2	Zito, Barry	LHP	32	31	202	4.25	33.5	49.3
3	Mulder, Mark	LHP	28	28	184	3.97	35.6	53.4
4	Redman, Mark	LHP	28	27	176	4.62	21.9	33.2
5	Harden, Rich	RHP	25	19	110	4.59	15.2	9.1
							-----	-----
	TOTAL		144	136	887		151.8	214.5

The big 3 are back and despite Will Carroll's misgivings, I think Mulder will be fine. PECOTA's not high on the big 3, particularly Zito and his declining peripherals. Then again, it wasn't high on these guys last year either, and they worked out just fine. Gone are Lilly (20.5) and half a season of Halama (-0.1). A full season of Harden and Redman should beat that easily, and they have Blanton and Duchscherer ready to step in in the event of an injury or trade. Even with PECOTA's dose of skepticism, the A's still project as one of the best rotations in baseball.

Bullpen

	Reliever	Pos	G	GS	IP	EqERA	VORP 04	VORP 03
1	Rhodes, Arthur	LHP	58	0	66	3.31	18.1	8.4
2	Bradford, Chad	RHP	55	2	75	3.28	20.7	21.2
3	Rincon, Ricardo	LHP	58	0	57	4.31	9.4	14.3
4	Hammond, Chris	LHP	39	1	53	3.77	12.3	17.8
5	Mecir, Jim	RHP	83	0	38	4.83	4.8	-2.0
6	Duchscherer, Justin	RHP	23	14	86	4.33	14.5	3.4
7	Blanton, Joe	RHP	21	15	91	4.61	12.5	0.0
							-----	-----
	TOTAL		337	32	466		92.3	63.1

Another year, another reliever made wealthy by a successful season accumulating saves for the A's, and another year where they will be just fine after letting the closer go. I like Foulke as much as the next guy (go Monks), but Rhodes has been consistently great when healthy over the past several years. The supporting cast is good, and bolstered by the Yankees' strange gift of effective lefty Chris Hammond. Duchscherer should break camp as the swingman and be effective at it, perhaps even being good enough to elicit notice from a Globe writer or 2 that he was traded for Doug Mirabelli straight up a few years back. Blanton should break when he's ready, and Oakland has shown that they are pretty good at guessing when that is.

Bench

	Bench Player	Pos	PA	EqAVG	EqOBP	EqSLG	VORP 04	VORP 03
1	Melhuse, Adam	C	168	.241	.328	.421	5.3	10.5
2	Karros, Eric	1B	291	.261	.322	.423	4.9	12.0
3	Menechino, Frank	INF	195	.234	.354	.348	4.5	0.1
4	Byrnes, Eric	OF	456	.270	.334	.465	15.0	19.7
5	McMillon, Billy	OF	202	.257	.340	.429	4.2	8.5

Karros was brought in to relieve Hatteberg and occasionally Durazo against lefties, and despite what side of the plattoon debate you come down on, I think it makes sense to give Ken Macha that added bit of roster flexibility. As far as I can tell PECOTA doesn't weight first half/second half seasonal splits, and therefore might be overreaching a bit on Byrnes. Either way he makes a nice reserve, since he can play any OF slot and hit a little. The other 3 guys are the sort of low batting average, high walk rate guys that you're used to seeing on the Moneyball A's. They ought to do the job nicely, at a low low price.

So contrary to most people's intuition, the stats like Oakland's offense to maintain its level but the pitching takes a hit. My personal prediction is reasonably close to that with a few caveats. One, I think it's perfectly reasonable to expect a few struggles from Crosby. He's got a great minor league record, but so did Blalock and Teixeira. Crosby did hit well at AAA, which is something the other 2 never got a shot at before making the Show. We shall see. Point 2 is that who knows if Kotsay can stay healthy. I don't. I like the pitching more than PECOTA does, but point 3 is that I have no idea how the new team will play out defensively. The big 3 don't have overwhelming K-rates and they will need some pretty good OF defense to sustain their dominance. In the end, I might give the edge in teh West to the Angels, but never count out a Billy Beane deadline deal that pushes them back in front.

(Editor's note: I just scored a free "working late" dinner for writing this. Ha ha. Suckers.)

Touché

2004-02-19T16:28:00.000-05:00

I agree on most counts. Let me rephrase my comment about the organizations that get it:
"I haven't noticed any runs of division championships or even consistent contention from the current Dodgers, Mets, Cubs, or White Sox management lately." On the other hand, the Yankees current management (Brian Cashman, Gene Michael) has 4 world championships, 6 pennants, and a run of 5 consecutive division titles. The Braves under John Schuerholz certainly wouldn't be confused with stat-heads, but their brand of "getting it" has them on an unprecedented streak of - what is it? 11 division titles and World Series? The A's have won nearly as many games as the Yankees since 1999 and have been in the playoffs every year. The Red Sox management has only been around a year, but the results are pretty impressive. Likewise, Cleveland is showing the makings of another perennial contender in a few years and have demonstrated that rebuilding doesn't need to take a decade or more (ahem, Detroit).

I'm not sure if anyone noticed the common element of the teams I picked on. It's not payroll, or even revenue. It's market size. Go ahead and add Philly to the list, cause they are a great example. Competitive advantages that result from a tradition of winning, continuing financial investment in the franchise, development of the farm system, and positive PR with the fans are all things that should be rewarded, not discouraged. These advantages are not the core problem. As much as I dislike the man, George Steinbrenner has been an excellent owner for the Yankee franchise, and he's done a lot of things that have leveraged the Yankees' market size advantage into piles of cash. Unlike scorched-earth owners like Wayne Hiuzenga (sp?) and Disney, he's actually reinvested a great deal of that back into the on field product. Investing in the team, renevating stadiums, and shrewdly negotiating cable contracts are all rewards for running the business well, and these opportunities exist in most markets. I don't see why poor execution means we need to tear down the rules of the game.

Side Note: It's not like we're talking about the welfare system or anything even remotely resembling a basic need or human right. Letting the poorly run teams fold isn't like letting a family of 4 starve to death. Even the most poorly run teams may not make an annual profit, but the return on investment for the reselling owner is still ridiculously high. Do you really think Carl Polhad owns the Twins because he appreciates their rich tradition?

The other key point hidden slightly in the Kahrl transcript was let's not let our memories be too short. Today's monster teams like the Yankees and the Red Sox were bad once and they will be bad again (though the doom seems a lot more impending for one of these two). There's just no way that even Steinbrenner will cough up $200 million by choice to a 70-80 win team. Who knows, in 10-20 years everyone may be clamouring about changing the system cause the Mariners are signing everyone under the sun. Stranger things have happened.

Getting it....

2004-02-18T13:52:00.000-05:00

Just a quick response to something. Colin said the following:

"I think there is an undeniable competitive advantage to any team playing in a major market with a greater population base and more disposable income. The point is that you still need to "get it" and make the right moves. I haven't noticed too many Dodgers, Mets, Cubs, or White Sox world championships lately."

To be fair, I haven't seen the Yankees, BoSox, Braves or the A's (all teams Kahrl noted as "getting it") win a world championship lately either. But both Colin and Chris are right - some teams make hideously bad personnel decisions which often dictate the fate of a franchise for years. But the Yankees aren't exempt from those transactions - they just have the financial means to erase them.

Many of the moves the Yankees have made in the last year would be classified as "not getting it". Unfortunately for the rest of the league, the Yankees can afford to purchase solutions to the those problems, regardless of the cost. Examples? How about trading Ted Lilly and 2 great prospects for Jeff Weaver, only to have him be a complete failure, and then turn around and agree to take on the Dodger's terrible Kevin Brown contract (while giving up only fringe "prospects") to make Weaver go away? Mondesi and the entire right field debacle, which ended with a massive Sheffield contract? "Upgrading" from Ventura to Boone, only to turn Boone into A-rod? Gabe White and Felix Heredia for a pile of cash because apparently Chris Hammond wasn't Yankee material? Just two of these transactions involved prospects of any value - twas all about the benjamins, and its hard to imagine any other team having the cash to make such moves.

Not sure if Colin meant to demean the magnitude and importance of the advantage the Yankees have in this respect (I don't think he did), but I thought it was worth bringing up that being a GM isn't an exact science. Whether you "get it" or you don't, mistakes will be made, markets will change, players will lose their mojo. Ask Billy Beane about Jermaine Dye.

Unfortunately for 29 out of the 30 guys running major league teams, their owners don't have cash band-aids to cover up mistakes.

Chris Kahrl says it well

2004-02-18T10:05:00.000-05:00

I was just reading through the Chris Kahrl chat from yesterday and a few things popped out that I really agree with, particularly from an objective fna of neither the Sox nor the Yanks. Rather than just pasting them in an IM window to Nick, here you go:

Thaskins (CT): How can MLB solve its marketing issue with regards to the salery cap? In the NFL you still have teams like the Redskins spending all this money on "established veterens." Stars still get cut as oposed to traded because they make too much. There are still really bad teams every year. Yet, everyone thinks a cap will fix baseball. I don't get it???

Chris Kahrl: Because 'cap' is a magic word, like 'tax cut,' or 'strategic defensive initiative,' or 'peace dividend.' It has meanings and connotations entirely divorced from the nitty-gritty of economic realities, and as we all know--this non-mathematician in particular--math is hard. Never mind that the NFL players are in a terrible spot, or that caps don't work. People want to believe in easy solutions.

aaron (delmar): why are the yankees so evil? when is the gutting of the farm system and bloated payroll finally going to haunt them?

Chris Kahrl: Are the Yankees evil? I remember the Dave Collins Yankees, the snickerable Yankees, the Oscar Azocar follies, the hopeless hopes inspired by Kevin Maas or Chuck Cary, and I know Yankees fans who stuck with them through all of that. It isn't like they're the Reds these days. That's evil.

(Colin Note: Kevin Maas!! I remember making the Yankees on the NES game Baseball Simulator 1.000. Maas was always my clean-up hitter who would average like 2-3 bombs a game. I remember all the hype when he got to X home runs in the fewest at bats since Babe Ruth, or some such stat. Ah, memories.)

Will (Fredericton): Dear Lord. Chris, please give me one reason to watch baseball with the awesome lethality of its competitive imbalance.

Chris Kahrl: First, there's no competitive imbalance, except between the teams that get it or use their resources to maximum advantage (like the Yankees, A's, Braves, Blue Jays, Red Sox, Indians, all teams at different points, but all working to get better), and the ones who don't. The competitive environment is getting more competitive and more dynamic, and whatever shudders ripple through the game because the Boss is especially nervous in his giggling is more a sign of progress and desperation than of any deeper concern. The core product, baseball, is still tremendously fun to watch.

(Colin Note: I think there is an undeniable competitive advantage to any team playing in a major market with a greater population base and more disposable income. The point is that you still need to "get it" and make the right moves. I haven't noticed too many Dodgers, Mets, Cubs, or White Sox world championships lately.)

News and notes

2004-02-18T09:00:00.000-05:00

Reports out of Texas are that Alfonso Soriano is actually 28, not 26, and the Rangers knew it when they completed the trade. (Sorry, the only link I can find to this story is subscription only.) Why this isn't bigger news was initially a shock to me, but I guess most baseball reporters still aren't really hip to the relationship of age to peak value. To me this is a huge story and casts further doubt on the sanity of John Hart. Chances are that Soriano is as good now as he'll ever be, which voids the arguements that his value will catch A-Rod's over the next few years. Generally players who at age 27 have a 130-38 strikeout to walk ratio aren't going to suddenly turn that around. So much for the hope that Soriano would pull a Sosa impression off. Soriano is already past the age of Sosa's breakout. It also makes me wonder even more if Miguel Tejada and Albert Pujols are actually their reported ages.

Maddux signs with Cubs. Scott Boras is pretty amazing. There's lots of things to not like about how he does things and I'm not going to argue any point in favor of greed over the game. Regardless, the man is pretty freaking good at what he does. As if there aren't 1,000 other pieces of evidence from the past, both the Pudge deal and the Maddux deal in this market are surprising, at least to me. In addition to the financial terms, this works out beautifully for Maddux. He gets the warm fuzzies of a homecoming all wrapped up in playing for a contender, in the NL, in a pitcher's park, on a hugely popular team. Good for him and I'm not disappointed in the slightest that the reports of him signing with the Yankees were bullshit.

Paul DePodesta is far less geeky than I pictured him. His resemblence to Theo Epstein is a little unnerving too. Do all these wunderkind come from the same master sabermetric gene pool? I smell conspiracy.

A couple of scruby ex-Red Sox are in the news. Fans in NY are devasted to learn that John Burkett wants to stay retired. Fans in Boston are equally thrilled that Frank Castillo is back in the system. Thankfully he'll be boring fans in Pawtucket and not devaluing my season tickets. I went to about 10 Fenway games in 2002 and I swear Castillo pitched in about 7 of them. Nothing thrills the crowd like the number 85 lighting up the FleetBoston radar gun display pitch after pitch after pitch after...

And finally, props to the Bruins for beating the Maple Leafs in Toronto last night. I don't have any delusions that they are a first place team, but I still have to hope. Winning the division is probably the difference between a first round draw of Montreal and a draw of Toronto. Leafs-Bruins playoffs series aren't good for my home life.

Shenanigans

2004-02-17T21:42:00.000-05:00

Wow....what a difference a week makes. My apologies for being the derelict blogger - I was away enjoying the great white north (not Canada, but close enough). Sidenote: not even the news of Arod joining the Yankees could ruin a day of powder skiing and hucking airs in the trees. Saturday was a thing of beauty - 6" of new snow, no lift waits, and countless lines for the taking.

Anyways, I don't want to say too much tonight. The A-rod trade came as a shock, but not really a surprise. A-rod's captaincy was a sham, Tom Hicks was losing money, A-rod wanted out of TX, so it was only a matter of time before the most expensive ballplayer in the game ended up with the biggest spenders in the game. The trade makes the Yankees better, but I don't think it makes them unstoppable. The same question marks still exist - no lefties in the starting rotation, questionable back-end to the starting rotation, old players at a majority of positions, bullpen that ranks an 8 of 10 on the Chad Fox questionability scale. You get the picture.

The thing that blew me away about the trade was how amazing a deal the Yankees were able to work out. For the next seven years they will pay A-rod less than they pay Jeter and Giambi - just $16 million per year. So Texas gave up the best player in the game, but agreed to pay $67M over the life of the contract, and they got a player back who will probably stay with them for a maximum of two more (increasingly expensive) years. They're still stuck with Chan Ho Park and Todd van Poppel, and its too late to do anything with the money they saved for this season. What an awful deal. Further evidence that Jon Hart may be the worst GM in baseball (yeah, I'm including Chuck Lamar, Kenny Williams, you name em).

Pitchers and catchers report in three days. Bring it.

News and notes

2004-02-17T08:06:00.000-05:00

The Dodgers have hired Paul DePodesta to act as their new general manager.

Swept up in the A-Rod storm was what may turn out to be a more significant move. Credited by some as the brains behind the A's low payroll success, DePodesta gets the chance to run his own team. Unlike his buddies Billy Beane and JP Riccardi, DePodesta will be working with a substanial payroll. He also inherits a severely flawed team that just had a reasonably solid, if unspectacular winter. It should take a little time to ween the Dodgers scouts off drafting high school pitchers and selling jeans, but I expect good things to come out of LA in the next few years. It's scary what smart people can do in a large market, just look at Theo Epstein and Brian Cashman. How long before Paul LoDuca wears an A's uniform?

Twins signed first baseman Doug Mientkiewicz to a two-year, $7 million contract with an option for 2006.

Doh! Last year Terry Ryan brilliantly chose Mienty over David Ortiz. Since that worked out so well, he decided to throw a nice chunk of his low payroll budget at a guaranteed deal that effectively blocks a younger and likely better player in Morneau. While there's a reasonable chance that Mienty will out-hit Moreau in 2004, the chances of that happening in 2005 and 2006 seem to be pretty slim, all for just slightly less than it would have cost them to keep their best reliever. Of course, the arguement is that Mienty adds so much defensively that his value is greater than everyone thinks. Well I don't pretend to understand all the stuff in Clay Davenport's cards, but it looks like Dougy is about 4 runs above average at 1B in each of the last 2 seasons. That hardly seems like a large enough margin to make this deal worthwhile.

Where's that link? Ah, here it is.

I find this latest rumor ot be extremely unlikely, and I can't imagine who would be happy about the signing actually taking place. Maddux is still decent, but he's far from the pitcher that he and Scott Boras still believe he is. I'd be completely shocked if he signs with any team in the DH league, let alone one with such widely reported defensive issues. I think more likely you'll see the return of El Duque, who could very feasibily take Lieber's spot. In lesser news, they are throwing a couple million dollars at upgrading Tony Clark to Travis Lee. Eh. It must be nice to have that much scratch to spend on defensive replacements and back-up plans. The true wonder is how they've never managed to get a useful utility infielder with teir vast resources. I wonder what the Orioles want for Brian Roberts?

Minnesota Twins

2004-02-16T15:49:00.000-05:00

Lineup

	Hitter	Pos	PA	EqAVG	EqOBP	EqSLG	VORP 04	VORP 03
1	Stewart, Shannon	RF	592	.293	.360	.443	17.7	13.0
2	Guzman, Cristian	SS	561	.279	.321	.404	20.2	2.7
3	Koskie, Corey	3B	519	.276	.377	.476	38.8	36.7
4	LeCroy, Matt	DH	345	.262	.325	.458	10.9	17.3
5	Hunter, Torii	CF	540	.274	.335	.508	25.6	9.8
6	Jones, Jacque	LF	532	.282	.332	.472	14.8	15.2
7	Mientkiewicz, Doug	1B	475	.284	.378	.443	20.3	24.0
8	Mauer, Joe	C	331	.249	.310	.352	0.7	0.0
9	Rivas, Luis	2B	463	.261	.320	.393	12.1	1.1
							-----	-----
	TOTAL		4358				161.1	119.8

The Twins come back in 2004 with a very similar lineup that they fielded in 2003. Notable changes include a full season of Shannon Stewart, and the confidence that uber-prospect Joe Mauer can make the big jump, as shown by the Pierzynski trade. The Stewart move may have gotten some press, but it's not really an improvement from the other internal (and cheaper) pre-trade options: Bobby Kielty (16.7), Mike Cuddyer, Mike Restovich, and Lew Ford. More notably, the Twins managed to win the division with a down year from Torii Kedar Hunter and almost no offense from Rivas and Guzman. PECOTA sees a 44 run improvement in the collective performance of those 3, which should more than make up for the fact that it sees a rocky jump to the majors for Mauer.

Rotation

	Starter	Pos	G	GS	IP	EqERA	VORP 04	VORP 03
1	Radke, Brad	RHP	28	26	167	4.39	27.7	34.0
2	Santana, Johan	LHP	33	20	125	3.66	30.5	50.9
3	Lohse, Kyle	RHP	29	27	173	4.35	27.9	30.4
4	Helling, Rick	RHP	27	20	123	4.84	12.1	9.2
5	Silva, Carlos	RHP	35	9	68	4.71	8.4	12.2
							-----	-----
	TOTAL		152	102	656		106.6	136.7

Radke and Lohse return, each with a modest predicted decline in performance but still solid. The rotation should benefit from an entire year of Johan Santana, particularly if they use him in the #1 slot. He had some minor elbow surgery in the offseason that from what I've read will no impact his performance. PECOTA, being a computer program, does not realize that the Twins have finally come to their senses and projects another season of being bounced back and forth from the rotation. In my opinion, he'll return as the ace he's proven himself to be, and with a bargain basement price of $1.6 million. In other news, the gambler has moved back to Arlington and the Twins will take a ride on the village Helling with their 4th slot. Speculation is that Carlos Silva, who came over in the Milton trade, will replace the Rick Reed/Joe Mays travelling fireworks display. On the whole the rotation projects to be slighter weaker than in 2003, but PECOTA thinks it could get a big boost from Grant Balfour. Perhaps he'll pull a Johan and force Gardy's hand or perhaps we'll be hearing all too familar speaches about how he's more valuable pitching 1/3 of the innings.

Bullpen

	Reliever	Pos	G	GS	IP	EqERA	VORP 04	VORP 03
1	Nathan, Joe	RHP	40	5	61	5.14	5.8	21.3
2	Romero, J.C.	LHP	45	0	52	4.48	8.0	6.2
3	Rincon, Juan	RHP	39	15	95	4.69	12.0	20.2
4	Fultz, Aaron	LHP	48	0	51	4.69	6.7	2.8
5	Balfour, Grant	RHP	26	12	75	3.48	19.5	5.7
6	Pulido, Carlos	LHP	21	11	66	5.49	3.8	1.7
7	Crain, Jesse	RHP	23	10	66	3.09	19.2	0.0
							-----	-----
	TOTAL		242	53	466		75.0	57.9

Here's where the real damage has taken place. One of the main strengths of the Twins these past few years has been an excellent bullpen which kept them in close games when they were behind and kept them on top when they were ahead. Now with Everyday Eddie closing in Seattle, LaTroy off to Wrigley, and Johan in the rotation, what was a strength is now a big fat question mark. For some reason, Terry Ryan thinks that Joe Nathan is the answer. On the bright side, there is some major leage ready talent right around the corner. PECOTA is most impressed with Canadian Jesse Crain, eh? It also thinks Grant Balfour is ready for the big leagues and Baseball America ranks rightie Chad Durbin above both of them.

Bench

	Bench Player	Pos	PA	EqAVG	EqOBP	EqSLG	VORP 04	VORP 03
1	Blanco, Henry	C	159	.223	.290	.336	-2.6	-8.9
2	Morneau, Justin	1B	366	.261	.330	.461	12.3	-2.1
3	Ojeda, Augie	INF	194	.241	.321	.342	2.0	-3.8
4	Cuddyer, Mike	OF	345	.275	.351	.485	19.8	0.0
5	Ford, Lew	OF	241	.267	.330	.425	7.5	8.6

The bench is both young and strong, as the Twins well documented depth at the corner positions continues to burst at the seams. Not listed is Mike Restovich, who is losing ground as a prospect but still has the power to fill in nicely. Both Morneau and Cuddyer could be major contributors by the end of this year, quality players who should form the core of a decent Twins team for years to come, at least until Carl Polhad decides to low-ball them.

So in the end, the Twins are treading water, but keeping pace with the rest of the weakest division in the majors. Their youth and minor league depth should make them the favorites once again. Good luck to them in the playoffs when they face the winner of the Yankees vs Red Sox AL East death match.

Hot Stove Reports Introduction

2004-02-16T15:09:00.000-05:00

Seeing as I'm incredibly unmotivated to work on a day that most people are joyously celebrating the birth of our founding fathers in their warm and snuggly homes, now seems like a good time to start the team-by-team breakdown of the coming season.

Remember the old ESPN Hot Stove Heaters series where they did a breakdown for each team? Well, the idea is to do something like that, the principle differences being that 1) I don't have access to STATS, Inc. data, 2) I don't have a crack team of web designers at my disposal, and 3) I don't get paid. What I do have is a subscription to BP Premium and the Excel skills to put stuff that I copied off a website in a format that I can translate to this blog. Unfortunately, I lack the data and ambition to run simulated seasons based off of PECOTA, but hopefully Nate Silver will hook us up soon. What I will do is show a chart of each team's probable lineup, rotation, bullpen, and bench, and a narrative of observations and comments. The chart will be comprised of 2004 PECOTA weighted mean forecasts of plate appearances, EqBA, EqOBP, EqSLG, and VORP ("Eq" = park and league adjusted), as well as 2003 actual VORP. For pitchers, I'll show appearances, games started, innings pitched, EqERA, and VORP. While the VORP comparison is not direct 2003 roster to 2004 roster, it should serve to give an idea of players who are expected to either decline or bounce back in 2004.

Some notes and considerations:
-The are only forecasts, so all the usual caveats apply. I happen to think the PECOTA system is great, but that doesn't mean it is (or should be) perfect. Surprise performances, positive and negative, as well as injuries will happen. The system does, however, give us a reasonable expectation of a player's performance for 04. Perhaps most importantly, it's a forecast based on a lot of data and history, not wishcasting or speculation.
-I included PA, G, GS, and IP to give you an idea of how changes in situation might need to be applied to the forecasts. For example, the system sees that Johan Santana (or BK) was used both in relief and in the rotation for the last 2 seasons. Based on that data, it forecasts more of the same for 2004. The reader will have to adjust based on his/her own expectations of playing time and role.
-Again, I didn't take the time to look up last year's roster to compare it to this year's and put a +/- on the # of runs scored/allowed. Analysis of this sort would be dandy, I just didn't take the time to do it. Trust me, it took forever to get the damn formatting for what I did do.
-I've decided to show 7 relievers and 5 bench players for each team, which brings our rosters to 26 players. The simple reason for this is that I have no idea who the team's are actually going to chose for their bench, and whether they go with 11 or 12 pitchers. What I show is guesswork based on my interweb readings and personal speculation.
-It sure seems like I'm going to a lot of trouble for the benefit of (both) our readers. Truth is I was doing a lot of this in my head anyway, so writing it down gives everyone a good chance to tell me how wrong I am at the end of the year. I hope you enjoy it too.

And now I introduce to you, the 2004 Minnesota Twins.

Shitstorm?

2004-02-15T20:24:00.000-05:00

Well I know you'll be getting plenty of that, so I'll refrain. Besides, while I'm not necessarily pumped by the whole thing, I'm not ready to bust out a rifle pissed. The thing that drives me crazy the most is an old arguement: Good lord, the Yankees can spend. I'm not in a position to bitch because the Sox are willing to spend too, but I mean even Yankees fans must admit that having four $100 million players takes it to a whole other level. Someday the Yankees will be in for a long rebuilding process because this win big, win now technique is extremely short term. (I never promised there would be *no* sour grapes in this post, you fuckers.) If anything, I hope this can lead to some change in baseball. I'm not saying we need an NFL level of parity or anything, we just need a little bit more level playing field.

From a Red Sox fans perspective as far as next season goes, I don't really care. I would honestly take our rotation going in to this season over the Yankees', I think our lineups will both be extremely good and I basically think it's going to be one fuck of a season. All Sox fans have to admit, once the Sox lost A-Rod we all knew the Yankees would make a run at him. We got Schilling before them, they got A-Rod after us. Both the Sox and the Yankees have made the best moves possible this offseason while trying to one-up each other. If it is indeed the Sox best year to make a run at fullfilling years of my childhood disappointment, all of us fans want to battle right through the Bronx to do it. Once we get Derek Lowe on the same page as me we should be fine. Derek, you were traded for Heafcliff Slowcome, you should be kissing our fucking asses. Don't make me whip you with a hose.

I've read this a few places but it bears repeating: It really sucks to be Baltimore and Toronto right now.

The bright side of the A-Rod move: I now know who I'm *not* picking first overall in my fantasy draft. Viva la no Yankees rule! Let's get Albert a Bobby Zupcic Wheelhouse uniform right now. Why won't my carriage returns post?

Here comes the shitstorm

2004-02-15T15:30:00.000-05:00

So by now you've heard about the trade and you've probably read numerous articles, message boards, interviews, and other media mostly talking about how the Evil Empire ruined things once again. While I understand the frustration, I'd prefer to look at things from a less rash point of view, at least for the purpose of this column. Try to put yourself in these shoes:

Yankees' management

You've been given not just clearance but specifically encouraged to increase payroll to the point where you have a past or current star at every position. You've barely kept ahead of your biggest rivals and only serious challenger to your run at division titles. You're nervous about the extremely high level of competition in your division, but you feel like you've built the framework for another World Series team. All of a sudden your starting third baseman goes down for the season. You start to scramble for any replacement, but all the quality options are already locked up. You make a minor deal with John Hart to try to fill that hole and it comes to your attention that you just might be able to get the best all around player in baseball, and his former team is willing to pay a big chunk of his salary. Palms sweating, you phone up the big guy. He says to go for it. How can you possibly say no?

Yankees fan (typical)

That's cool. Can we sign Nomar next year to play 2B?

Yankees fan (educated)

Wow. I'm still in shock about how high George will go, but damn, how can I criticize a deal that improves the Yankees this much? Of course, keeping Jeter at short will be a mistake, but we'll see how long that will last. Sure we lose Soriano, but A-Rod is probably about 30 runs or 3 wins better on offense, and Kevin Brown ought to be jumping for joy at the defensive implications. Plus now Joe Torre has no choice but to put an OBP guy in the leadoff spot. Really the only negative I can see in this whole thing is the backlash. I'll have to listen to a hell of a lot of whining, but I'm sort of used to that by now.

Red Sox fan (typical)

!&%#&!%$^ dude. I hope everyone on the Yankees, who has been on the Yankees, or who even thought of the Yankees dies a horrible and painful death... immediately.

Red Sox fan (educated)

I suspect this will be answered by my fellow bloggers, but something tells me it will be pretty similar to "Red Sox fan (typical)"

Red Sox management

Externally: "Waaaaa waaa waaa, the Evil Empire, blah blah blah."
Internally: "Damn, if we had only not been such hard-asses with the union, it could have been us ripping off the Rangers. Oh well, I guess we'll have to settle for the Wild Card and rely on having two aces and a great lineup in October."

Rangers management

Duuuuuuuh, what? I think Chan Ho Park is primed for a comeback. Seriously. Now we can sign more Todd Van Poppells. Man, it's hot here. Did I leave the stove on this morning?

Colin

Seriously, I think Red Sox nation is going to be freaking out over this a little too much, as usual. Yes, it sucks that A-Rod will be in NY, particularly since there was a good chance he would have ended up in Boston. Still, the Sox are in good shape to win the Wild Card at the least. A few key injuries and accelerated aging effects could land them the division. Once in the playoffs, they have as good a chance as any other team. Pedro is still Pedro and Schilling is great too. Every aspect of the team is solid. I wouldn't count them out. No matter how much George is willing to spend, the playoffs are still short and subject to random fluctuations. As Billy Beane is (in)famously quoted as saying, "it's fucking luck." Though that's a bit of an exaggeration, I wouldn't start printing Yankees 2004 World Champion t-shirts just yet.

Lazy man's post and run-on sentences

2004-02-13T11:56:00.000-05:00

Since I see our blog has risen from its premature grave and again become prolific, I feel that as a founding partner and majority stock holder (wait, can you own stock in a partnership? who cares? stop talking to yourself. ok.)... where was I? Oh yeah, I was saying that I'm going to post just for the sake of posting.

First some reactions:

-We have 2 readers?! Hey everyone, we love you.
-I have no brushes with sports greatness. Zero. Well, maybe 0.000001. I saw Donta Bright in Antonio's pizza once. I'm sure everyone knows who that is, right? At the time he was the starting power forward on the #1 NCAA Men's Division I basketball team in the country. That's right, the Minutemen rule. I think I saw one of the point guards on campus once too.
-Vernon Wells threw me a baseball once after I yelled his name out for about 6 innings. I dropped the ball. Some say I'm not coordinated but I blame the beer.

Looking ahead:

I have been planning a sort of hot stove team-by-team analysis for this web log, but it's been slow going in implementing it. The idea is to show my idea of what the 25 man roster will look like, show some key figures from the 2004 forecasts, and then comment on changes from the prior year and my guess at how this year will be. Perhaps too ambitious for a guy who regularly works 11 hour days, has to study for a WICKED HAHD exam, and has a wife at home who gets annoyed when he's never there. Plus one of our many readers out there (you know who you are) wants me to join his Socom II online clan, which would require time both to not completely suck at the game, and to actually play the online game for hours. So maybe it will and maybe it wont happen, but I'll keep working on it.

Also I got a big kick out of a silly article from yesterday's BP that compared a merged Yankees/Red Sox team with a combined other 28 teams team (read it if that doesn't make sense). I thought it would be funny to post some follow-up on that. Maybe I will do that later.

Blog on, good sir.

My brush with greatness and my love of trash.

2004-02-13T09:32:00.000-05:00

Literally one of the biggest disappointments of my young life was when Nick Esasky brought his car into my family's gas station to have it repaired and my dad didn't think to get his autograph for me. Then again, my dad's not exactly 'in the know' when it comes to sports. For example, Darren Banks came in to get gas one day and my dad had no idea that "black guys" played hockey. Nick Esasky was my favorite baseball player at the time, even though he was traded for one of the biggest dorks in baseball, Todd Benzinger. Mentioning that trade is relevent here because I'd like to point out that I have a special place in my heart for both crappy Red Sox players and complete nerds who play baseball (Hell, I liked Jay Bell when he was on the Diamondbacks because he wore those dumb glasses). Anyways, before you get all huffy and send me rediculous stats and charts to illustrate that the 1989 version of Esasky was not crappy (because he's obviously a total stud), I'd like to point out one thing: "Players most similar by age: Phil Plantier". That's right. According to baseball-reference.com, Manchester New Hampshire's own Phil Plantier is listed right along side old Nickey as a "similar player". Your stats now mean nothing. No player can be compared to Phil Plantier and be considered anything more than complete trash. Case and point: On Phil's list, the number 3 most similar player is Bubba Trammell. Yes, the same Bubba Trammell who is suing the Yankees because he sucks.

We play this game on the fourth of July in International Falls Minnesota called "Washed-up Whiffleball", and that's when my love of these players gets to shine. The rules are pretty simple aside from one major addtion: it's homerun derby but before you get up to bat or pitch, you have to "be" a crappy baseball player. Added taste of realness: there's a short left-field porch with a pool that has been dubbed "Ozzie Canseco Cove". The game itself is great fun, plus you get the added bonus of keeping someone's legacy alive. When I dig in as Reginald Jirod Jefferson and am completely overpowered by Justin pitching left handed, I know that somewhere in Japan Mr. DH Platoon Himself has a warm fuzzy feeling inside. You think Pat Rapp wouldn't cry into his fat hands if he somehow found out that he had pitched a gem of an inning a couple years ago?

Remember when we thought that Dwayne Hosey would break the Home Run record once he got a full season in the bigs? Remember when we thought Donnie Sadler would become the next Rickey Henderson? Remember when Morgan Burkhart was going to hit .500 and continue to look like the biggest dickhead in baseball? Remember when we though Jeff Frye was tall? Remeber when the Sox had Mark Lemke period? Those were special times. The most specialest times ever.

Oh and my brush with greatness came when I got Andy Moog's autograph at the Waltham Boys Club. The very same Waltham Boys Club where I was a member of the two-time floor hockey Champions. Sadly enough, that's my greatest sports accomplishment.

Wow, that's depressing. I wonder if this is how John Clayton feels?

I'm back b***hes

2004-02-12T19:02:00.000-05:00

Just like Dave Chappelle.

First off, kudos to our newest blogger Nick for cracking me up with his inaugural post. I suppose I should change the title to say something about the fact that three guys are now blogging? How about "Two guys who know it all and one guy who has an unhealthy obsession with scrappy, ill-tempered, washed-up wingers"?

I've been absent from the page for almost two weeks, and what happened during that time? Well, not much I guess. Certainly nothing worth writing about. Except for things like: the Patriots won the Superbowl; the Bruins have won 6 in a row and sit just a point or two out of the top spot in their division and the Eastern Conference; the Sox brought back Ellis Burks on the cheap to solidify their bench and lineup vs LHP; NHL general managers agreed to proposed rule changes. Yeah, nothing happened at all.

Theres not much to be said about all these events that hasn't already been said, but I do have a few comments.

I went to the victory parade for the Patriots - I stood outside in the cold for an hour, then watched gleefully as the entire Patriots team passed by in the span of about 120 seconds. Can't say I was that impressed or pumped up. In fact, I didn't feel drastically different than when Derek Lowe walked by me in Logan Airport the day after the 2002 baseball ended. Actually, he walked by me three times. How cool is that? How cool am I?

Bruins are rolling, but I'm not buying what they're selling. They've been hot and cold the last 3 years, and I don't want to get my hopes again only to get steamrolled in the first round by a lesser opponent (e.g., Canadiens, 2001-2002 season). They'll go as far as Big Joe and Ray-zor take them I guess. Can we trade Samsonov for a power forward centerman? I realize Sammy is the Magical Muscovite, and he weaves incredible tapestries of logic-defying cuts, zags, and cycles in the offensive zone, but hes SOFT. Call me crazy, but I think a large centerman to put on the second line would complement Bergeron, and give the Bruins two very physical, tough lines to handle - I like that idea alot.

The first line has been red hot lately, which is great for both the team's playoff hopes and the fans to watch. I still don't agree with having Knuble on that line - I think he's a junk player that does nothing to open the ice for Joe or Murray. But, with Murray reverting to Tom Berenger-like sniper form, and Joe consistently taking the puck to the net and shooting, Knubs is an after-thought. Anyone remember that goal last year when Joe Thornton beat two NJ defenders and then Brodeur? Man, that was unbelivable. (end of Chris Farley impression).

On a semi-related note: the B's are running a contest where the prize is..............wait for it...............lunch at Friendly's with Knubs. Is there a more lame contest out there? I challenge all 2 of the readers to find it if there is. I can't wait for the "Breakfast at Bickford's with Tony Womack" contest to roll around this June.

Until next time....

Hijacked!!!

2004-02-10T16:06:00.000-05:00

Being a loyal reader of this blog's two+ week existance is tough work. I check and I check and I check, still no updates. That's why through the power of internet wizardry, I have sliced in to the pipeline of this blog and am now set to deliver a much needed kick in the pants. Much like an extremely useless A-Team, I will break in and erradicate the blogging blockade, after which I will drug myself with a sandwich that I tricked myself in to eating.

Helpful Tips for Red Sox "fans" during the upcoming Season:

Number one: If your summation of this year's Sox team is "This is the year!!LOL!" (Take extra points off if you say it while pulling on your freshly purchased Nomar jersey), please move over to the line of people waiting to be told the names of the "non-sexy" Red Sox players.
Number Two: Just because you think a player is hot doesn't mean you know why he shouldn't be sitting against left-handed pitching. If you tell me your favorite player is Trot, it better be because he plays balls out like a talented Darren Bragg on every pitch, not because you want to pop out his little Jesus babies.
Number three: Unless your name is Dan and you fart hundred dollar bills anytime someone mentions the word "Bambino", shut the hell up about the "Curse". Curley Haired Boyfriend can keep saying it because I pretend he's lost all ability to communicate with people not named "Delusions of Gradure".
Number four: The 'Yankees Suck' chant's time has passed. Next year's suggestion: Pen- sion Plan *clap clap clapclapclap* or maybe "15-Day Dee El". Not as "clever" I know, but the Yankees suck chant just doesn't hold water anymore. Side note: The "Take your rings and shove them up your ass" t-shirts are commendable. I never thought the "Sucks" t-shirts could be outdone, but I have been proven completely wrong. Congrats on taking it to a whole new level of classlessness. Also New York, forget the "1918" thing. The correct counter for Yankees' fans would be something like "Jo-hn Harrington", because trust me, the true curse of the Sox has been *SHOCK* horrendous management. I'll just let you in on that because I know it's tough to like, research and stuff, what with keeping track of all those rings.
Number Five: I swear, if anyone says "Blah Blah, the Sox can't win the World Series or else we fans won't know what to do anymore, huddalah huddalah!", I will snap. I'm not even kind of kidding. Attention Newspeople: If you use this as a story lead because you're completely bankrupt of ideas, expect a brick to come through your window with "Dave Stapleton" hastily scrawled through tears on it around the end of October.

This is about where I drive off in my Ford Tempo (which, using a roller and house paint, I painted black and slapped a red sheet metal spoiler on) to wait for the posts of my success.

The good ship blogipop.

2004-01-30T14:22:00.000-05:00

Nevin? He's certainly fits the mold of a neo-Yankee: expensive, injury-prone, slow, and OLD. That said - I can't bad mouth him too much, because I like his fantasy potential this year, and if the Sox wanted to replace Mueller with him I'd be all for it. In any case, I don't think he's going anywhere. Though Colin makes a sound argument about Nady and options and money-savings, the Padres play in a weak and winnable division, and trading Nevin would be a good way to shoot themselves in the foot. They've got good young arms, and some proven run-producers. I'll predict now: this trade doesn't happen anytime soon, though if the Padres are out of contention come July, it gets done.

Too much Yankee talk lately. Lets talk about Tony Womack - this guy is junk. Did some alien-crab lifeforms kidnap Theo last week and replace him with a ringer who likes old, talentless guys who can't do anything? And if the answer is yes, well, then who was running the DRays while this was going on?? Zing. Seriously though, why Womack? I hope to God he was brought in to serve as competition in Spring Training for Bellhorn. Hes got a career OPS of .674 - thats just .007 more than Pokey Reese. Do we need two of those guys on the roster?

Speaking of Bellhorn, I'm keeping my eye on him for fantasy leagues. Good positional eligiblity, great pop - if he makes the team he could be a real steal at the end of an AL-only draft. Even more so if you're in a sabremetric league.

Hockey talk
When the h-e-double hockey sticks are the Bruins gonna acquire a second line scorer? I'm sorry, but this team needs a second threat, not necessarily a center either. I could imagine a Satan-Bergeron-Lapointe line being pretty effective. How about Jillson for Satan? Look, this team can't win by scoring just one or two goals a game, despite the stellar goaltending they're getting from Raycroft. The more the B's let Jillson watch the games as a healthy scratch, the more value he loses in the eyes of other teams. Are we just gonna keep him around so he can fill in at wing every once in awhile? How about Jillson for O'Neill? How about Jillson for Gagne? You can see where I'm going with this...there has to be something out there worth pulling the trigger on.

What about San Diego?

2004-01-29T08:19:00.000-05:00

We're probably beating a dead horse with this Boone thing, but it's not like there's anything better to write about this week.

There is one potetial option out there that I haven't seen anyone mention yet. San Diego, probably because they appear to be on the upswing and are one of the few non-AL east teams adding payroll this winter, has thus far been left out of trade speculation. Regardless, I see some potential in their surplus of corner guys. As near as I can tell they are currently planning to play Brian Giles in LF, Phil Nevin in RF (or 1B), Ryan Klesko at 1B (or RF), and Sean Burroughs at 3B (assuming Jay Payton in CF). That leaves prospect Xavier Nady and problem contracts Terrence Long and Jeff Cirillo on the bench. Now Nady may not project to be a monster hitter, but he's certainly serviceable for a lineup that no longer has any major holes. PECOTA forecasts him for a park adjusted line of .260/.322/.448. More importantly, it's in the Padres best interests to get the 25 year old some major league at bats to see if he is a guy they want to lock up long-term as Giles, Nevin, and Klesko all turn 33 this year. So what I propose is that you deal Nevin and his .274/.343/.471 to the Yankees to play 3B. VORP says that the Padres will lose 9 runs by replacing Nady with Nevin, but what can the Yankees offer in return? Well, as Derek pointed out, not a lot in terms of talent. However, Nevin still has 2 years left on his 4 year, $34 million deal. Since he "only" made $5 million last year, I can only assume the contract is backloaded and there is a significant obligation on the books for a 33 year old who missed time due to a major injury last season. If that's not enough, let's not forget that Long and Cirillo are owed $23.5 million over the next 2 years (assuming the 2007 option on Cirillo's is bought out). I'm sure the Padres would jump at the chance to clear enough payroll to add Greg Maddux. Getting Nevin to waive his no trade clause is an obstacle, but usually it's not a huge struggle to convince players to go to a team that has gone to the World Series 6 times in 8 years. The Pads can probably snag a prospect or 2 in the process, something Billy Beane has managed to do countless times with the Yanks.

Brian Cashman and Kevin Towers take note. Thank you.

Trade what for Boone?

2004-01-28T20:58:00.000-05:00

Great minds think alike, and today apparently they thought alot about Aaron Boone. Nope, I wasn't included in this group until about 5 minutes ago - I'm talking about Colin and Rob Neyer both discussing the topic of the Yankees' internal options at the tepid corner. Both fine writers concluded the same thing: the Yankees need to look outside the organization for the answer (and no, I'm not talking about New Jersey and THE Answer). So I got to thinking - what could they possibly offer (besides piles of cash) in exchange for a player like Beltre or Helms, as Neyer suggests?

Well, their top prospect according to Baseball America is a catcher who split his time between Hi A and AA last season. In AA he posted a .341/.388/.471 line, and is expected to get a September callup this fall. Hes a switch hitter who doesn't project to hit for a ton of power, and he plays solid D. He's a solid chip to play with - but what else is there? Well, out of the remaining Top 10 prospects, just two (both pitchers who project as relievers) have spent any time at AAA, and just one additional player has spent any time at the AA level or above. Interestingly, the #2 prospect in the system is a 3rd baseman, Eric Duncan, who played rookie and short season ball, and profiles as a "middle of the order run producer" according to BA.

I'd guess that given the position scarcity at third base, a team like LA would demand Duncan as well as 2 to 3 of the other folks on this list in order to part with a Beltre type player. So despite giving up tons of talent in trades over the last year, it would appear the Yankees will have enough to get a deal done. But who knows if they'll have enough left in the clip come July and they need to replace their weakest link.

Other news:
- Dany Heatley returned to the ice tonight for the Atlanta Thrashers. I think its great, and its not just because I've got him on a fantasy team that is currently suffering in 5th place. For a great story on what he's gone through in the last 4 months, check this out.
- The Bruins are still a sloppy team in their own zone, and I have no idea why Jillson is watching games from the press box when schmoes like McGillis and Gill are daydreaming their way around the blue line. I hate this team sometimes.
-Holy Shnikeys!!! Ottawa's Peter Schaefer with a fantastic goal on Marty Turco of the Stars. Watch for it on ESPN sportscenter or Motion, or however you get your highlights.

Aaron Boone

2004-01-28T13:21:00.000-05:00

Yesterday over IM I was discussing how losing Aaron Boone for the season effects the Yankees' 2004 outlook. In the absence of any other decent news ("heterosexual" Asian pitchers doing gay porn aside) I figured I'd recycle that as today's post. Rather than focus on what the Yankees are going to do with his contract and wild speculation of who they are going to buy to plug the hole, I'm going to take the angle of the pure baseball impact if they were to plug from within the organization. The basis for my figures are the 2004 PECOTA Weighted Mean Forecasts.

So what would Boone have been worth for 2004? Let's start with offense. According to the forecast, Boone would have hit .268/.324/.437 in 516 plate appearances, along with 16/20 on the basepaths. That translates to right around the major league average run production per PA, and is good enough for a VORP of 26.1 (meaning 26 runs above a hypothetical replacement AAA third baseman over the course of the season). That puts him 7th out of Yankee regulars, right between Hideki Matsui and a rapidly deteriorating Bernie Williams, and 12th out of major league third baseman.

Let's move on to defense. At the risk of offending the huge white elephant in Brian Cashman's office, let's just say that the Yankees may not be the best defensive team in the league. Granted 3B isn't exactly the (hot) cornerstone of any defense, but Boone is one of 2 Yankees (major and minor leagues) that BP thought fit to forecast who is above average defensively. PECOTA puts him at 5 runs saved above average, compared to say 10 runs below average for Tim McCarver's hero, Jeter. In fact, that 15 run difference in their defense is almost exactly the same as the gap between the two offensively. Of course, if #2 had hurt his knee playing basketball most of the major media would be declaring Armageddon, but maybe we can chalk that up to "veteran leadership," "clubhouse presence" or some other equally meaningless intangible. The reality is that losing Boone is a pretty significant blow to the team's 2004 outlook.

Of course someone needs to play 3B, so who do they have in the system? Here are the options, along with projections (PA/BA/OBP/SLG/VORP/Defense):

Enrique Wilson (150/.238/.287/.351/1.3/-7 SS)
Miguel Cairo (240/.263/.315/.400/6.1/-8 2B)
Erick Almonte (273/.237/.306/.381/6.0/-5 SS)
Drew Henson (276/.235/.293/.409/6.3/-13 3B)
Brian Myrow (234/.241/.340/.409/12.3/-9 3B)

Ugly. So the big winner here is a 27 year old AA third baseman that no one has ever heard of and is pretty much the definition of "replacement level." We can expect the Yankees to lose 25-30 runs and with it 3-4 wins. Myrow's potential offensive contribution is surprisingly good, but it's going to be painful to watch a ground ball pitcher like Kevin Brown pitch in front of Giambi (-3), Soriano (-4), Jeter (-10), and Myrow (-9).

If ever there was a need to flex those payroll muscles, now is that time.

Snoozings and Musings

2004-01-27T21:34:00.001-05:00

With the exception of Aaron Boone getting stuffed by some street ball-uhs and blowing out his knee, its been a slow week in the hot stove leagues. (Yes, I'm aware A-Rod was named captain of the Rangers - I don't include the bestowing of meaningless titles in hopes of getting some positive PR a baseball move, so lets just move along.)

I wish something would happen, anything - just make the media stop talking about the "negotiations" between Pudge-rod and the Detroit Tigers. Since when does flirting between a team that won 43 games and an over-rated catcher become compelling hot-stove news? Am I missing something? What the hell are both parties thinking?

Pudge - you're nuts. You're a solid catcher, but you're 32 and coming off an OK season. It wasn't great, it wasn't bad. Your VORP was better than all but two catchers in the majors. But a $40 million 4 year deal? Take less, play for a real team where you'll be happy. No one wants to see you slumming it in the Motor City.

Detroit - you're playing the role of me, circa 1996. For weeks I chased a Hawaiian girl who, in retrospect, had no interest in me. I finally came to my senses when after I asked her to lunch (she said no) and then to dinner, she told me she didn't think she was going to eat again that semester. Ouch.
Guess what Mr. Dombrowski - Pudge isn't eating this semester, this academic year, this lifetime. While you sit around hoping hes gonna call you back and agree to eat dinner at Towers, Boras is using you to drum up some interest in his client with real baseball teams. So do us all a favor, stop calling that stuck up be-atch, and put an end to my suffering. For god's sake, its gotten so bad that a story about Sean Sedlacek looks interesting to me. Yes, that Sean Sedlacek. Even worse, the story was about him being acquired by the Mets. Yes, those Mets.

Coming soon to a theater near you...

Colin speaks

2004-01-27T16:05:00.000-05:00

Speaking of the resident "Yankee lover", here I am. I'm Colin and, yes, I'm a Yankee fan living in Boston. How did this happen you ask? (I don't care if you didn't ask, most people do and I really have no obligation to explain myself to you anyway, do I? You're not the boss of me.) The simple answer is that I was living in NY when I discovered a love for baseball at the ripe age of 8, and despite the Mets recent (at the time) superiority, I was drawn in by the amazing history of the pinstripes. I did book reports on Lou Gehrig biographies and saved up my allowance to buy Don Mattingly rookie cards. Ah memories of the days of 1987 Topps fake wood edging and Pete Rose player/manager/gambler.

But I digress. I moved to New Hampshire when I was 10 and met Derek when I was 11. A whole bunch happened in between and now we're in Boston and spend way too much time talking sports on IM when we should be working. Let the record show that I love the Bruins and also consider myself a Patriots fan.

Out of me you should expect more sabermetrically inclined rants, as I jumped on that bandwagon a couple of years back. In particular I'm a big fan of Nate Silver and PECOTA, and not just cause it helped me place 1st in all 3 fantasy leagues last year.

I'd say that's enough for post #1. Now I gotta call some auditor back about a 10K pension footnote... Ah, the joys of work.

Welcome to the pain cave....

2004-01-27T15:43:00.000-05:00

This is Derek, making my inaugural post. What should readers expect from this blog? Well, my opinions on sports, as the topic suggests. Specifically, all things baseball, and all things hockey. I love the Bruins, I love the Sox. I think the Rangers are a practical joke propagated against NY fans to punish them for being such annoying douchebags about the Yankees. By the way, it's a great joke. The part where they trade for Jagr after three of their top 6 defensemen got hurt - that was just classic.

I won't just offer boring, blahdy blah blahs though. My opinions will most certainly be ridiculous, they will be steeped in anti-New York sentiment, and typically (though not entirely) backed up with clever anecdotes and statistical evidence.

I can't promise the same from my Yankee loving partner in crime. With that being said, LET'S DO IT.